Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 031952
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
350 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...LOW PRESSURE TO SLOWLY DEVELOP OFFSHORE THE FL EAST COAST AND
INFLUENCE THE LOCAL WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEKEND...

...POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS/SURF AND RIP CURRENTS THIS WEEK...

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...CONVERGENT BAND OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC THIS
AFTERNOON HAS BROUGHT A FEW SPRINKLES OVER THE GULF...BUT ACTIVITY
IS FALLING APART AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE DRIER...POST-SEABREEZE
SUBSIDENT AIR ALONG THE COAST. A FEW SPRINKLES MAY MAKE THE MARTIN
COUNTY COAST WITH LITTLE IMPACT. OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 60S
INLAND AND UPPER 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SPACE/TREASURE COAST EAST
OF 95. A FEW MORE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW REACHING THE IMMEDIATE TREASURE COAST...MAINLY
TOWARDS SUNRISE AS EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES AND DEEPENS.

MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH CENTER TO THE NORTH CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE
ATLANTIC WITH LOWER PRESSURES TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE NW CARRIBEAN
ALONG THE FORMER FRONTAL BOUNDARY. INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL TAP
INTO THE HIGHER MOISTURE POOLED ALONG THE FORMER BOUNDARY...AT LEAST
IN THE LOWER LEVELS. ENOUGH WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ONSHORE MOVING
ATLANTIC SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG THE
TREASURE COAST. STRENGTH OF THE FLOW MAY BRING A FEW INTO THE
INTERIOR...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP CHANCES ALONG THE COAST. HIGH TEMPS
SIMILAR TO TODAY IN THE LOW-MID 80S INLAND/AROUND 80 COAST.

TUE-WED...PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO REMAIN TIGHT INTO TUESDAY
BETWEEN STRONG HIGH TO THE NORTH AND AN AMPLIFYING INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE NWRN BAHAMAS. THIS RESULTS IN BREEZY NE-ENE WINDS
WITH SCT-NMRS SHOWERS NORTH OF THE TROUGH AXIS INTO WED...UNTIL A
SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO CONSOLIDATE BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CAUSE
NE WINDS TO BEGIN TO BACK MORE NRLY...WITH AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE
PIVOTING OFFSHORE AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND
THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW...WHICH WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY NWD TO OUR
EAST. MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH
TUE MORNING MIND MILDER IN ONSHORE FLOW.

THU-SAT...WHILE THE 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THE SAME GENERAL PICTURE
OF A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE THE FL EAST COAST AND
MOVING NWD...THERE CONTINUES TO BE DIFFS IN STRENGTH/POSITION OF THE
SURFACE LOW. THE ECM REMAINING WEAKEST/FARTHEST EACH OF THE MODEL
SUITE WITH OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE MORE WOUND UP AND CENTERED CLOSER TO
FL. WHILE THIS HAS SOME LIMITED EFFECT ON MEAN MOISTURE...THE MAIN
IMPACT WILL BE  ON WINDS/SEAS OVER THE ATLC. I SUSPECT A SLIGHTLY
WEAKER/FARTHER EAST SOLUTION MAY WIND UP VERIFYING. IN ANY EVENT...
ALL THE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE LOW LINGERING OFFSHORE THE SE COAST INTO
THIS WEEKEND...AND HENCE THE FL EAST COAST IS LOOKING AT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH HIGHER THAN NORMAL SEAS/SURF. NEAR NORMAL TEMPS THU-FRI
PROGGED TO RISE TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR. SCT-BKN DIURNAL CU FL040-060. A FEW
SPRINKLES OVER ATLC SOUTH OF KVRB THIS AFTERNOON/EVE...WITH ISOLD
SHRA MOVING TOWARDS COAST FROM ATLC LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
COVERAGE/IMPACTS LOOK LOW AND DON`T WARRANT MORE THAN A VCSH ALONG
THE COASTAL SITES.

&&

.MARINE...

TONIGHT-MONDAY...EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE 10-15KTS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WITH A SLOW INCREASE TO 15-20KTS SOUTH OF
SEBASTIAN INLET LATER THIS EVENING AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. SPEEDS
INCREASE TO 15-20KTS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC INTO
LATE MON MORNING WITH A SOLID 20KTS EXPECTED OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS BY LATE AFTERNOON.

DOMINANT PERIODS HAVE DROPPED TO 10-12 SEC THOUGH LOCAL BUOYS STILL
SHOW A LONGER PERIOD COMPONENT WORKING THROUGH THE WATERS. OVERALL
SEAS CONTINUE 4-6FT WITH 7FT SEAS WORKING IN BY LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
WITH WORSENING CONDITIONS LATE IN THE DAY.

TUE-FRI (MODIFIED PREV)...DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE
INTO MID WEEK AS A MODERATE TO FRESH ONSHORE BREEZE CAUSES SEAS TO
BUILD TO 6-8 FEET OFFSHORE. SFC LOW FORMS NEAR THE BAHAMAS BY WED
THEN LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWARD...POSSIBLY STALLING OR BENDING BACK TO
THE NW FRI INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...STRENGTH AND
EXACT POSITION OF THE SYSTEM/CENTER REMAINS UNCERTAIN...HOWEVER THE
SYSTEM WILL BE LINGERING OFFSHORE THROUGH DAY 5...RESULTING IN
POTENTIALLY DELETERIOUS BOATING/BEACH CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  65  78  66  79 /  10  20  20  20
MCO  64  83  65  83 /   0  10  10  20
MLB  69  79  70  79 /  10  20  20  40
VRB  69  81  70  80 /  10  20  30  50
LEE  63  84  63  84 /   0   0  10  20
SFB  63  82  63  83 /   0  10  10  20
ORL  65  81  64  83 /   0  10  10  20
FPR  68  80  70  80 /  10  20  40  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MOSES
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...CRISTALDI



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