Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KMPX 051724
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1224 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN CONFINED WELL SOUTH OVER IOWA
AND ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT. DRY NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES OVER OUR
NECK OF THE WOODS AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER THE U.P. OF
MICHIGAN. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TURN SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE THIS
MORNING... BRINGING SOME OF THE MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA.
MODELS APPEAR A LITTLE TOO QUICK BRINGING THE HIGHER DEW POINTS
BACK...BUT BY LATE AFTERNOON 50S ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN
AND WRN MN. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THESE
AREAS...BUT CHANCES LOOK PRETTY LOW WITH WEAK FORCING. THE BETTER
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME TONIGHT AS THE MAIN SURFACE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH. STILL...AS UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW TAKES SHAPE...
FRONTOLYSIS WILL LIMIT FORCING. MODELS SHOW RATHER MEAGER QPF
TONIGHT...CERTAINLY COMPARED TO WHAT THEY WERE SHOWING A FEW DAYS
AGO. THE WRF-NMM AND WRF-ARW ADVERTISE ONLY A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS
LIFTING NORTH WITH THE FRONT...SO NO MEANINGFUL RAINFALL
UNFORTUNATELY. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW UNTIL
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING INCREASES.

GIVEN THE LACK OF MID CLOUD COVER IN PLACE NOW AND HOW THERE COULD
BE SEVERAL HOURS OF SUN BEFORE THEY MOVE IN...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND NWRN WI...RAISED HIGHS TODAY SEVERAL
DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

THE LONG TERM CONCERNS REMAIN THE TIMING OF THE EJECTION OF
SOUTHWEST CONUS SHORT WAVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THEN THE TIMING AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE THAT LIFTS
INTO THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A A TOUGH TIME WITH THE DRY AIR IN
PLACE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MODEL TRENDS INDICATE THAT
THIS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME OVERCOME BY SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE AS
THE WARM FRONT LIFT INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WILL
CONTINUE THE CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN INCREASING
TO LIKELY OVER THE WESTERN CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
APPROACH OF BETTER MOISTURE AND FORCING WITH THE SHORT WAVE. THE
BEST SHOT OF PRECIPITATION COMES IN FOR THURSDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT. THIS SHOULD SCOUR THE RAIN THREAT FROM WET TO EAST THURSDAY
NIGHT. WILL LEAVE SMALL CHANCE POPS INTO THE FAR EASTERN CWA INTO
FRIDAY IN CASE TROUGH SLOWS A BIT. EXPECTING MORE CLOUDS AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AND THIS WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN
SOMEWHAT. HIGHS IN THE 70S LOOK TO BE OK FOR THE TIME BEING. IF WE
DID HAPPEN TO SEE MORE SUNSHINE...WE MAY WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S
TO THE SOUTH.

THE LONGER TERM TRENDS INDICATE ANOTHER DECENT WAVE LIFTING
NORTHEAST...AFFECTING THE REGION MAINLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS IS
HIGH VARIABILITY IN THE STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. THE 00Z ECMWF DEVELOPED A DEEP SURFACE
LOW...OCCLUDING TO THE NORTH OVER MN LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE GFS
WAS MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND WEAKER. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED COLDER
TOWARDS MAY 11 AS WELL...WHICH WOULD PARALLEL THE TREND ON THE CFS
V2. THE 18Z RUN REALLY DROPPED TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO WARM TO AROUND 40 ON THE 11TH. SOME SIGNIFICANT QPF
AS SNOW FORECAST FOR MSP AS WELL. AT THE MOMENT...THE ECMWF HAS
THE SNOW OVER THE DAKOTAS FOR THIS PERIOD. WE WONT GO AS COLD AS
THESE MODELS INDICATE. NATIONAL GUIDANCE HAS THE LOW TRACKING
CLOSER TO THE GEFS MEAN OR ACROSS IOWA/MISSOURI THROUGH NEXT
MONDAY. DEFINITELY COLDER THAN AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO
WARM THROUGH THE 50S AT THAT TIME...WHICH COULD SET UP AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THE AREA FOR FROST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

VFR TO START BUT AS A WMFNT APCHS FROM THE S...LOWER CLOUDS WILL
STEADILY TAKE OVER. LOW SCT CLOUDS WITH MIDLVL CEILINGS WILL
PRECEDE MVFR CEILINGS LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS
INTO TMRW WITH THE FRONT. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO DEVELOP
BY THE PRE-DAWN HOURS BUT WILL BE MORE OF THE HIT-AND-MISS VARIETY
RATHER THAN MORE SUSTAINED RAINS...WHICH LOOK TO COME MID-TO-LATE
DAY WED. MODEST IMPROVEMENT MAY COME WITH THE RAINFALL BUT
CEILINGS STILL LOOK TO HOLD IN THE MVFR RANGE WHILE VSBY IS NOT
EXPECTED TO DROP TO BELOW 5SM. WINDS WILL BE SOLIDLY SE THROUGHOUT
WITH SPEEDS IN THE 8-15 KT RANGE.

KMSP...WILL LOOK FOR CEILINGS TO REMAIN ABOVE THE 1700FT THRESHOLD
THRU THIS AFTN AND EVE...THEN DROP BELOW MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. AS PRECIP COMES IN...SOME OF THOSE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE
WASHED OUT...ALLOWING FOR MVFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE BUT JUST ABOVE
THE 1700FT MARK. NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED UNTIL TMRW AFTN AND
CHCS FOR TSTMS ARE TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION ATTM.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...MVFR CONDS LIKELY WITH IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA.
WINDS S 15-25 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NE 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...JPC


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.