Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 050245
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1045 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ONLY CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE LATE EVE UPDATE WERE ADJUSTMENTS TO
POPS BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS.

PREVIOUS...
BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG FRONT IN OHIO WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT
AS BOUNDARY BECOME HUNG UP ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND WESTERN PA. AS
DEEPER MOISTURE IS TRANSPORTED NORTH TONIGHT AHEAD OF BOUNDARY
EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE NORTH WITH LIKELY
POPS...AND CHC POPS SOUTH. LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH PUSH TUESDAY FOR
FRONT TO BACKDOOR TO KPIT FOR LIKELY POPS WITH CHC POPS SOUTH.
TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY MAINLY FROM
KPIT NORTHWARD WITH HIGHS ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO WEDNESDAY BUT EXACT
PLACEMENT STILL UNCERTAIN...AS WELL HAS WHERE BEST RAIN CHANCES
WILL SET UP. AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS MID WEEK FRONT WILL
BECOME MORE DIFFUSE WITH DECREASING SHOWER CHANCES WEDNESDAY.
MOISTURE MAY BEGIN TO SNEAK BACK UP THE RIDGES THURSDAY WITH
DEVELOPING EASTERLY FLOW AND HAVE LEFT A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN
THE RIDGES SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT BUT LESS SO FOR THE I-80
CORRIDOR WHERE COOL ADVECTION WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE LOWER 70S
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROAD H5 RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE NERN CONUS INTO THE WEEKEND.
AGGRESSIVE WARM AIR ADVECTION /WITH H9 TEMPS REACHING 20-22C/ IS
INDICATED IN BOTH ECMWF AND GFS DESPITE DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS
OF THE OVERALL PATTERN EVOLUTION. WARM TEMPERATURES WITH MAXIMA
IN THE 80S AND MINIMA IN THE UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

THIS WARM AIR AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL COMBINE TO
FUEL OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
ANY SUCH STORMS WILL BE TIMED WITH SUBTLE WAVES THAT ARE NOT
RESOLVED PARTICULARLY WELL BY THE MODELS AT THIS TIME. THUS...POPS
IN THIS FORECAST FOLLOW A GENERAL DIURNAL TREND AND ARE FOCUSED
HIGHEST IN PROXIMITY TO LARGER-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH POSITION.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING SHOWERS...INCREASED DEW POINTS
LOWERING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER VISIBILITY ACROSS SOME
OF THE TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL EVENTUALLY DETERIORATE TO
MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR SETTINGS ACROSS SOME TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT
OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS CROSSING THE
REGION TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP CATEGORIES AT MOSTLY MVFR
STAGES.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED RESTRICTIONS IS A POSSIBILITY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY DECAYS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$


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