Area Forecast Discussion
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FXPQ60 PGUM 042224
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
824 AM CHST TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PGUA DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS ONLY A FEW SHOWERS WITHIN THE MARIANAS
WATERS WITH A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE GUAM WATERS.
THE VAD WIND PROFILE REVEALS EAST WINDS OF 12 TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH
THE LOWEST 4 THOUSAND FEET OF THE AIR.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MARIANAS REMAIN IN A TRADE-WIND REGIME THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HOWEVER...FOR DAYS 8 THROUGH 10 THINGS GET A BIT MORE
INTERESTING. THE ECMWF-HIRES HAS HAD GREAT RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY
WITH DEVELOPING A TROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR POHNPEI AND MOVING IT
TOWARD THE MARIANAS. THE GFS40 JOINED IT YESTERDAY... PROVIDING
SOME MODEL-TO-MODEL CONSISTENCY AS WELL. TODAY...NOT ONLY DO BOTH
THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW IT...SO DOES THE NAVGEM. SO IN ADDITION TO
THE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PAINTED A SHIFT IN WINDS FROM NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHEAST. THIS IS STILL FAR SHORT OF THE DIRE SCENARIOS
PAINTED BY THE MODELS...WILL CHECK AGAIN TONIGHT WITH THE LATEST
RUNS THOUGH. WENT AHEAD AND POPULATED THE WAVE HEIGHTS BUT TOOK
ANY VALUES OVER 10 AND SET THEM AT 10 FEET.

WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 4 TO 6 FEET THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN
BEGIN A GRADUAL INCREASING TREND. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...CAPPED THEM
AT 8 TO 10 FEET FOR THE TIME BEING UNTIL IT IS A BIT CLOSER. IF
THIS KIND OF CONSISTENCY CONTINUES...MAY LET MORE OF THE MODEL
SIGNAL THAN USUAL THROUGH.

&&

.TROPICAL SYSTEMS...
TROPICAL STORM NOUL IS MOVING TOWARD YAP VERY SLOWLY. THIS SLOW
SPEED WILL ALLOW IT MORE TIME TO INTENSIFY AND MAGIFY ANY ISSUES
WITH RAINFALL. THEREFORE YAP WAS PLACED INTO A TYPHOON WARNING
THIS MORNING.

A NEW CIRCULATION IS FORMING SOUTH OF CHUUK AND POHNPEI. FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW. THE JOINT
TYPHOON WARNING CENTER AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL
CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS CIRCULATION.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE
AT MAJURO AND KOSRAE. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT MAJURO THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS BEFORE A SLIGHTLY WETTER TRADE-WIND PATTERN SETS UP
THERE. AT KOSRAE AND POHNPEI...THE AXIS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH IS JUST WEST AND SOUTH OF POHNPEI COASTAL
WATERS...AND A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH OF KOSRAE. IR SATELLITE
ANIMATION SHOWS SHOWERS CLOSING IN ON POHNPEI THIS MORNING...WITH A
SIMILAR TREND EXPECTED AT KOSRAE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SLOWLY
DEVELOP A CIRCULATION...STILL LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF POHNPEI...OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...THIS CIRCULATION WILL KEEP NEARLY
STATIONARY THUS SUSTAINING A WET PATTERN FOR KOSRAE AND POHNPEI
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
CHUUK...UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AT CHUUK
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE MONSOON TROUGH AND A NEARLY-STATIONARY
CIRCULATION SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK LAGOON WILL STAY IN THE GENERAL
VICINITY THROUGH MIDWEEK. MODELS SLOWLY DEVELOP THE CIRCULATION
AND EVENTUALLY MOVE IT TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST.

TROPICAL STORM NOUL CONTINUES ITS VERY SLOW APPROACH TO YAP.
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE TODAY WITH WINDS
REACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY
TYPHOON FORCE LATE THIS EVENING. MORE DETAILED INFORMATION IS
AVAILABLE IN THE HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE UNDER WMO HEADER WTPQ81 PGUM. IMPROVING WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

KOROR...TS NOUL WILL STAY NORTH OF KOROR AND WILL CAUSE WINDS TO
SHIFT FROM NORTHWEST TODAY TO THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL
INCREASE TODAY BRINGING SURF TO HAZARDOUS LEVELS ALONG NORTH FACING
REEFS. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR KOROR AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY CLOSELY CONFINED TO THE CENTER OF
TS NOUL. HOWEVER...DID INCREASE CLOUD COVERAGE IN THE FORECAST...
DUE TO SPREADING OF CLOUDS FARTHER FROM THE STORM CENTER. A BAND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED FARTHER SOUTH OF THE CENTER
AS WELL. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY SIMILAR FEATURES THAT COULD
DEVELOP OVER KOROR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. IF SUCH A DEVELOPMENT
OCCURS...A WETTER NEAR-TERM CONDITION WILL BE AT HAND FOR KOROR.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

STANKO/M. AYDLETT



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