Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 261046
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
646 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER AIR MOVES SOUTH TODAY. CHILLY NORTH FLOW TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS ON MONDAY COULD PROVIDE SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS.  DRY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE LOW THAT DROVE YESTERDAYS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
HEADING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM
THE NORTH. STILL HAVE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS INTO MID MORNING. MAY EVEN GET SOME SUNSHINE LATER
TODAY...AS CLOUDS SCATTER OUT FROM WEST TO EAST...PUSHING TEMPS TO A
COUPLE DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60 IN THE LOWLANDS WITH 40S AND 50S IN
THE MOUNTAINS.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND VORT MAX ROTATE IN FROM THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. HAVE SOME LOW END POPS ACROSS NORTHERN WV WITH THIS BY SUNRISE
MONDAY. HAVE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS MOST OF FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY
MORNING AS WELL. LOWS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES MAY
APPROACH THE UPPER END OF THE FROST THRESHOLD...BUT THINK SOME WIND
WILL ALSO REMAIN SO DID NOT PUT FROST IN THE FORECAST...AND WILL
HOLD OFF ON FROST ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO MAJOR PRECIPITATION MAKERS DURING THIS PERIOD IN THIS WET MONTH
OF APRIL.

2 500 MB SHORT WAVES IN THE COLDER N/NW FLOW. THE FIRST SHOULD BE
EXITING SOUTHERN COUNTIES AT 12Z MONDAY WITHOUT MUCH MOISTURE.
SECOND ONE DROPS INTO NORTHERN COUNTIES BY 00Z TUESDAY.  MOISTURE
DEPTH SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AOB 10 THSD FT UNDER MID LEVEL CAP. COULD
NOT RULE OUT A DUSTING OF SNOW AOA 4000 FEET INTO MONDAY EVENING.

THINKING THE STRATOCUMULUS WILL TEND TO THIN OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT.
YET STILL IN THE 850 MB THERMAL TROF THOUGH...SO PATCHES OF
STRATOCUMULUS COULD LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS DECREASE. THIS
MAKES MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST DIFFICULT. HAVE MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE IN THE LOWLANDS NEAR THE TOP OF THE FROST THRESHOLD.
WILL ADD THE POSSIBILITY OF FROST FOR DAWN TUESDAY IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER POTENTIAL...BUT CERTAINLY NOT A SURE BET.

NO MAJOR CHANGES ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING...STILL DRY.

NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM 500 MB CLOSED LOW ONLY SLOWLY LIFTS TOWARD US
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WHILE MID LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS.  WILL TRY
TO DELAY INCREASING POPS ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH DROPPING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PHASE WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TO THE CAROLINA COAST. SOUTHERN SYSTEM SHOULD STAY TO
THE SOUTH OF US...WHERE THE BETTER THREAT FOR RAIN LIES...BUT THE
PHASING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND GENERAL COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE AREA FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK. DEEP SOUTH RIDGING WILL FOLLOW ITS WAKE...ALLOWING
FOR A MARKED CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN...WHICH SHOULD
DRY US OUT AND WARM US UP TO MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IFR STILL LINGERING AT CRW AND BKW. SHOULD IMPROVE AT CRW BY MID
MORNING...LINGERING LONGER IN THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. MVFR IN THE
NORTHER MOUNTAINS SHOULD LINGER INTO THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE VFR
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHERLY
FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...MZ







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