Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
FXUS63 KSGF 251818
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
118 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
An upper level low center was located over northern Missouri this
afternoon, forcing scattered showers over central Missouri.
Locations along and north of a line from Osceola to Salem will
experience the greatest chance at a shower or two this afternoon.
We don`t think sufficient instability will develop for any severe
storms in SGF`s warning area, but will develop toward the
Mississippi River Valley and to the east.
Stratus will spread across the entire Ozarks region tonight and
may hold temperatures up some. Upper 40s to the middle 50s are
expected for overnight lows. With the upper low exiting the
Ozarks, we should remain precipitation free.
For Sunday, look for decent weather for outdoor activities with
temperatures warming into the 60s, under a mix of sun and cloud.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
A large scale trough across the western U.S. will evolve into a
quasi-closed off upper level low. This feature will create some
unsettled weather across the central and southern Plains. This low
may create some rain for the Ozarks, but this is quite uncertain.
The GFS brings sufficient moisture and lift into southwest
Missouri for showers and thunderstorms Monday night into Tuesday.
Meanwhile the ECMWF and Canadian solutions confine all
precipitation across Oklahoma and Arkansas.
For now we will remain conservative with our POP forecasts for
Monday and Tuesday, suggesting a mostly dry forecast. Cloud cover
and northeast breezes will keep temperatures below normal, with
highs on the in the 60s both afternoons.
The Wednesday through Saturday period looks fantastic. A slow
moving upper level ridge will move into the nation`s midsection
and provide warm and sunny weather. Temperatures are expected to
trend well into the 70s by Friday and Saturday. No precipitation
chances are needed for the Wednesday through Saturday time frame.
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 648 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
Several items will affect area aerodromes today. First off is low
level wind shear transitioning to gusty southwest winds. 12z KSGF
raob indicates 40kt about 1000 feet off the ground and this will
result in low level wind shear quickly transitioning to gusty
southwest winds in the next couple of hours. These winds will
shift to a more westerly component heading into this afternoon as
low pressure moves east across northern Missouri. Rain chances
today look best to the north and east of JLN/SGF/BBG. Heading into
this evening, guidance is hinting strongly at an IFR (possibly
LIFR) stratus deck sinking southward into the region as the
aforementioned low exits to the east/southeast. Have introduced
predominate IFR conditions around/just after 06z.