Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 261452
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
952 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART IS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. FINALLY
GETTING RID OF THE PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH VERY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN THIS MORNING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. 14Z
ANALYSIS SHOWING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WHICH HAS PULLED UP NEARLY
STATIONARY ALONG THE AR/LA BORDER TO NEAR THE OK/TX BORDER.

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS SHOWING DEVELOPING CONVECTION ACROSS
CENTRAL TX IN AN AREA OF PVA IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO CUT ITSELF OFF
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. SHORT TERM PROGS ALL HANDLING THIS
MOISTURE A BIT DIFFERENTLY TODAY SO FOR THAT REASON...HAVE DECIDED
TO LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST AREAWIDE TODAY. HAVE
MORE CONFIDENCE IN PERHAPS OUR WESTERN ZONES SEEING SOME WIDELY
SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON ACTIVITY TODAY COMPARED TO OUR NE ZONES
BUT WEAK FRONTAL FORCING COULD PERHAPS HELP TO GENERATE SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION THERE AS WELL.

FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE REALLY CLOSE TO ACTUAL AMBIENT NUMBERS
THROUGH 14Z THUS...FCST HIGH TEMPS ARE IN THE BALLPARK. DID MAKE
SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER AND DEWPOINT GRIDS TO MIMIC
CURRENT AND EXPECTED TRENDS. OTHERWISE...NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO
THIS FCST PACKAGE.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY...13.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 744 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

AVIATION...
VLIFR-VFR WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG AFFECTING TERMINALS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-20. IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR AREA WIDE ARE EXPECTED TO
UNFOLD QUICKLY 13-15Z FOR MOST SITES. L/V WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME SE 5-10KTS AND THEN BACK TO ENE OVERNIGHT AS A BACKDOOR
FROPA OCCURS. IN ADDITION...AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW OVER AZ WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS LATE IN THE CYCLE WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBY WHICH WILL CONTINUE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS
THE LOW MOVES OVER AR BY 29/06Z.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  88  61  68  55 /  20  40  70  70
MLU  86  59  71  54 /  20  30  70  70
DEQ  82  56  65  51 /  20  60  70  70
TXK  85  57  67  52 /  20  60  70  70
ELD  84  57  67  51 /  20  30  70  70
TYR  89  63  70  55 /  20  60  70  70
GGG  89  62  69  55 /  20  60  70  70
LFK  90  68  75  59 /  20  60  70  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/13


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