Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 281153
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
653 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

An upper low that is currently over the area will move east into
the lower Mississippi River Valley by this evening. Widespread
stratus will dominate the area today, with mainly MVFR conditions
expected. The exception will be across KABI where light rain and
IFR ceilings will persist through mid morning. Stratus will lift
to VFR this evening, with skies eventually clearing. Breezy north
to northwest winds today will diminish to 10 kt or less by this
evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...

An upper low is currently situated across the northern Big Country
early this morning and will move east to the Arklatex region by late
afternoon. Light to moderate rain has been falling across the Big
Country and northern portions of the Heartland overnight. Rain will
gradually taper off today as the upper low moves away from the area.
Kept chance POPs going across this area through the morning hours,
with slight POPS farther southwest across the Concho Valley and Hill
Country counties. Gusty north winds will develop on the back side of
the upper low today, along with cloudy skies through a good portion
of the day. Temperatures today will be well below normal with highs
mainly in the lower 60s. Record low maximum values for today are 62
degrees at Abilene and 59 degrees at San Angelo.

Clearing skies, light winds and a drier airmass will result in very
chilly temperatures tonight, with the mercury falling into the
lower and middle 40s by daybreak Wednesday.

LONG TERM...

Northerly flow aloft develops by Tuesday night and Wednesday as
the upper low heads off to the east. Drier air filters into the
area...with mostly clear skies and a warming trend expected
through the week into the early part of the weekend. We should see
highs climbing into the mid 80s by Friday. A change is coming for
late in the weekend into early next week, with a chance of
thunderstorms returning to the area. Zonal flow develops aloft by
the weekend with a weak embedded shortwave moving across the
panhandle and north Texas on Sunday. We could see a few dryline
thunderstorms Sunday afternoon/evening, but appears the better
chance of rain will be Monday and Tuesday as southwest flow
develops ahead of the next upper trough as it moves into
Arizona/New Mexico. A few thunderstorm will be possible Monday,
with even better coverage of storms Tuesday afternoon/evening. Too
early right now to determine details, but given the time of year
and warm temperatures leading to increased instability....severe
weather can not be ruled out for early next week.

08

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  60  45  72  49  80 /  50   5   0   0   0
San Angelo  63  43  75  48  82 /  20   0   0   0   0
Junction  62  44  74  48  81 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/24




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