Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 251154
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
654 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 355 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Latest water vapor satellite loop at 08Z shows the upper low over
northeast Kansas. Regional radar loop shows precipitation
circulating around the low centered over the Washington and Marshall
county border. Rather broad swath of showers and thunderstorms
around the upper low. Expect a period of showers and thunderstorms
to persist in the deformation zone as the upper low slowly moves off
to the east through the day. Will maintain chances of showers and
isolated thunderstorms this morning then across the northeast
through the afternoon hours. Short range high resolution models as
well as the ARW and NMM support the above thinking with
precipitation gradually ending from southwest to northeast through
the day. Expect skies to remain mostly cloudy through the day with
with winds becoming northerly with the passage of the surface low.
High pressure over the northern Plains and into the Great Lakes
region will keep winds from the east this evening and overnight.
Forecast soundings suggest that there may be a few breaks in the
overcast early this evening otherwise expect mostly cloudy to cloudy
skies through the night. Highs today will range from near 60 in the
far northeast to the lower 70s near central and southeast Kansas.
Lows tonight cool into the mid to upper 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 355 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Easterly flow over the lower few thousand feet Sunday deepens well
through the troposphere late Sunday into Monday as the upper trough
over the west coast cuts off from the stronger westerlies, staying
well south of the local area as it comes southeast. Rather moist low
levels to start Sunday, though persistent dry air advection from
deep ridging to the northeast should allow stratus to dissipate by
early Sunday afternoon. Will likely see fairly significant cirrus
for much of Sunday night through Monday night with southwest winds
remaining at this level, but still enough mixing for highs in the
low to mid 60s both Sunday and Monday, and keeping lows above
frost concern levels these nights. A weak northern branch wave
drops an even weaker front into the Central Plains around Tuesday
night with little if any change in sensible weather. The
dominating northern branch keeps shortwaves well north of the area
through the end of the week with modifying temps and no
appreciable precipitation chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 654 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

A combination of vfr to mvfr cigs are expected through 16Z then
going back to mvfr cigs for much of the period. Scattered SHRA is
expected through 17Z, but is not expected to reduce visibility out
of VFR category. Forecast soundings show a chance of IFR after 07Z
and have introduced IFR cigs in this time frame.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...53






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