Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 260937
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
237 AM MST SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...THEN DIMINISH IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN ALSO BE
ANTICIPATED TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THEREAFTER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL
ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A RATHER STRONG SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA TODAY. MOST OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WAS
PASSING THROUGH PIMA...GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD FARTHER
EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES INTO NEW MEXICO. THE SNOW LEVEL WAS NEAR 8000 FEET EARLY THIS
MORNING...SO JUST EXPECTING SOME ACCUMULATIONS ON THE MOUNTAINTOPS
TODAY. THEREAFTER...A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUED TO DEPICT A
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA THIS COMING
WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP IN
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 27/12Z. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
-SHRA AND ISOLATED -TSRA THRU THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE NORTH OF A SAN SIMON-KTUS-SELLS LINE.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR IN AND NEAR -SHRA/-TSRA...AND
NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF KTUS AFTER 27/00Z.

EXPECT BKN TO OVC CLOUDS THRU MIDDAY AT 5-10K FT AGL. SKIES WILL
GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SURFACE WIND WILL INCREASE TO BE WLY/NWLY AT 12-25 KTS WITH GUSTS OF
30-40 KTS GENERALLY AFT 26/16Z. THE STRONGEST WIND IS EXPECTED
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS ADJACENT TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. SURFACE WIND
WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KTS AT MOST LOCATIONS AFT 27/03Z.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NORTH OF THE
AREA WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS
GENERALLY NORTH OF A SAN SIMON-TUCSON-SELLS LINE. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS. ANOTHER ROUND OF WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15-25 MPH AND A
FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH A
PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND THROUGH THURSDAY. GUSTY EAST WINDS MAY
OCCUR TUESDAY...THROUGH SPEEDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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