Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 052137 CCA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
233 PM PDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CONFINED PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AND CENTRAL NEVADA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN DIVE DOWN
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND TAKE AIM AT SOUTHERN NEVADA AND
SURROUNDING AREAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY RESULTING IN BREEZY...SHOWERY
AND MUCH COOLER WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. A GRADUAL DRYING
AND WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. &&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE FORECAST AREA WAS BETWEEN SYSTEMS TODAY AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW
PULLED AWAY ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND A MUCH COLDER LOW
CIRCULATED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ATTENTION TURNS TO THIS
PACIFIC NORTHWEST SYSTEM AS IT WILL BRING A DRAMATICALLY COOLER
WEATHER BY FRIDAY ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN NEVADA. THE 12Z MODELS ARE
ALL IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
PROGRESSION OF THE CLOSED LOW THROUGH FRIDAY.

A MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE WAS SETTING UP ACROSS INYO...
ESMERALDA...CENTRAL NYE AND LINCOLN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
SHOULD HOLD FAIRLY STATIONARY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST IS PULLED INLAND
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST SYSTEM. THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT UP THROUGH
NORTHEAST NEVADA WEDNESDAY WITH A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW SPREADING UP
THROUGH ALL BUT OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES. THIS WILL SHIFT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH...AFFECTING MAINLY NORTHERN INYO...ESMERALDA...NORTHERN NYE
AND LINCOLN COUNTIES. WILL TRIM POPS DOWN SOMEWHAT SOUTH OF THESE
AREAS FOR WEDNESDAY.

FOR THURSDAY...THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO DIVE INTO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WHICH WILL PLACE MUCH OF INYO AND ESMERALDA
COUNTIES NEAR THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AND FAVOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MEANWHILE...A DRY SLOT IS FORECAST TO BE OVER MUCH OF
SAN BERNARDINO...CLARK...LINCOLN AND SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY. MAY
NEED TO TRIM THE POPS FOR THESE COUNTIES A LITTLE MORE. DOES NOT
LOOK LIKE MUCH OF A CHANCE FOR SOUTHERN NEVADA. WINDS WILL
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT BUT THE
LATEST HIGH RES MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCE INDICATE BORDERLINE ADVISORY
LEVELS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE LOW CENTER AND COLD POOL IS FORECAST
TO HEAD EAST AND GO RIGHT OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA. THIS WILL PRODUCE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SNOW LEVELS
DROPPING TO AROUND 6000 FEET. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN
THE SPRING MOUNTAINS. MOISTURE IS NOT ABUNDANT WITH THIS SYSTEM DUE
TO ITS INLAND TRACK...BUT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME MODERATE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS CONSIDERING THE INSTABILITY AND DYNAMIC
SUPPORT AS THE LOW SLOWLY CHURNS TO THE EAST. HIGH TEMPS WILL DIP
WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS THE
MOJAVE DESERT REGION.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE AXIS OF THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE OVER SOUTHERN UTAH AND
NORTHERN ARIZONA SATURDAY MORNING WITH SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
STILL OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEVADA. THIS WILL KEEP THE POSSIBILITY
OF SHOWERS ACROSS AREAS FROM LAS VEGAS NORTHWARD UNTIL SATURDAY
EVENING. A DRY AND WARMER AIR MASS WILL THEN QUICKLY SPREAD OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY WITH A SHORT WAVE RIDGE FOLLOWED BY A SOUTHWEST
FLOW MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND ABOVE NORMAL
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS 90 TO 100 DEGREES ACROSS THE MOJAVE
DESERT REGION. &&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTH WITH
OCCASIONAL SWINGS TO THE SOUTHEAST UNTIL SETTLING INTO THE USUAL
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DRAINAGE DIRECTION AROUND 03Z. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER NORTH DRIVING A NORTHERLY WIND PUSH
INTO THE VALLEY OVERNIGHT...BUT THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTHERLY ALL DAY
WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AT THE TERMINAL WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST OVER THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN THROUGH THURSDAY...AND THEN SPREAD AREAWIDE
FRIDAY. THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS...LOW CEILINGS...AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. &&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS WEEK ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES. &&

$$

ADAIR/MORGAN

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