Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX12 KWNP 180030
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2015 Apr 18 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. Region 2325 (N04E32, Dai/beta)
produced the largest event of the period, a C2 flare at 17/0137 UTC.
Region 2324 (N19E23, Cki/beta) also produced some low level C-class
activity. Region 2321 (N11W08, Ekc/beta-gamma) remained the largest and
most complex region on the disk but was relatively quiet. No
Earth-directed CMEs were detected.

.Forecast...
There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts with a
slight chance for an X-class flare (R3-Strong or greater) over the next
three days (18-20 Apr).


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
moderate to high levels with a peak flux of 2090 pfu observed at 17/1815
UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit
remained at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at normal to high levels for the forecast period (18-20 Apr). The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to
remain at or near background conditions (Below S1-Minor) for the
forecast period.


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters indicated the beginning of recovery from the
southern polar coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Solar wind
speeds decreased from near 785 km/s to 600 km/s. Total field declined
from 8 nT to 3 nT and Bz had a maximum southward deviation of -7 nT
early in the period but was mostly variable between +/- 3 nT after
approximately 17/0700 UTC. Phi angle remained in a predominately
negative (towards) sector.

.Forecast...
Conditions on days one and two (18-19 Apr) should see solar wind
parameters slowly decrease as CH HSS effects subside. An enhancement is
expected late on day three (20 Apr) as a recurrent positive polarity CH
HSS moves into a geoeffective position.


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm (G1-Minor)
conditions due to continued CH HSS effects.

.Forecast...
Active conditions (Below G1-Minor) are likely early on day one (18 Apr)
followed by quiet to unsettled levels as CH HSS effects subside. Quiet
to unsettled conditions are anticipated on day two (19 Apr) followed by
unsettled to active conditions late on day three (20 Apr) as a recurrent
positive polarity CH HSS moves into a geoeffective position.


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