Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 060031
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2015 May 06 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 06-May 08 2015 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown May 06-May 08 2015

            May 06     May 07     May 08
00-03UT        3          3          2
03-06UT        3          4          1
06-09UT        3          3          1
09-12UT        2          3          1
12-15UT        3          2          1
15-18UT        4          1          1
18-21UT        3          1          2
21-00UT        3          2          2

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 06-May 08 2015

              May 06  May 07  May 08
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at May 05 2015 2211 UTC

Radio Blackout Forecast for May 06-May 08 2015

              May 06        May 07        May 08
R1-R2           55%           60%           70%
R3 or greater   10%           15%           15%

Rationale: Solar activity is likely to see (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) radio
blackout levels with a slight, yet increasing chance for an R3-Strong
radio blackout event, over the next three days (06-08 May). Regions 2235
and 2239 are the likely sources of increased solar activity.


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