Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS Ohio RFC

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FGUS61 KTIR 020122
ESGTIR

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OHIO RIVER FORECAST CENTER WILMINGTON OH
930 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE OHIO RIVER BASIN/LAKE
ERIE DRAINAGE.

AN ABOVE NORMAL FLOOD POTENTIAL MEANS WIDESPREAD FLOODING COULD
OCCUR WITH WATER LEVELS HAVING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.

FOR THE LONG-RANGE RIVER OUTLOOKS AND THE PROBABLITY OF EXCEEDING
FLOODSTAGE OR THE CHANCES OF FLOODING RELATIVE TO NORMAL AT
SPECIFIC FORECAST POINTS DURING THE NEXT 90 DAYS...REFER TO
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OHRFC AND CLICK ON THE 90-DAY RIVER OUTLOOK ON THE
LEFT HAND SIDE OF THE PAGE. CLICK ON FLOOD CHC VS NORMAL TO VIEW
THE RISK OF FLOODING WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL.

FLOOD OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED BI-WEEKLY BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DURING WINTER AND EARLY SPRING TO SUMMARIZE BASIN
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS AND TO ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR
WINTER/SPRING FLOODING. THE OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON CURRENT AND
FORECAST CONDITIONS DURING THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.

IN ADDITION...A 90-DAY WATER RESOURCE OUTLOOK IS ISSUED MONTHLY.

FACTORS CONSIDERED IN ASSESSING FLOOD POTENTIAL ARE (1) ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS (2) PAST PRECIPITATION (3) RECENT STREAMFLOWS AND
RESERVOIR LEVELS (4) SOIL MOISTURE (5) WATER CONTENT OF THE SNOW
PACK (6) ICE CONDITIONS ON THE RIVERS AND (7) FUTURE PRECIPITATION.

METEOROLOGICALLY...THE PREVAILING STORM TRACK DURING WINTER 2014/15
RESEMBLED AN EL NINO SIGNATURE ACROSS THE U.S....PREDICTED SINCE THE
SUMMER OF 2014...WITH STORM SYSTEMS HITTING THE WEST COAST...THEN
MOVING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH BEFORE CURVING UP THE EAST COAST OR OUT
INTO THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC BASIN. THE LACK OF PHASING OF THE
POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JET STREAMS RESULTED IN MAINLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE PRECIPITATION EVENTS IN THE OHIO VALLEY/LAKE ERIE DRAINAGE.

FOR THE METEOROLOGICAL WINTER 2015...TEMPERATURES IN THE OHIO
VALLEY/LAKE ERIE DRAINAGE WERE BELOW NORMAL...AND PRECIPITATION
AVERAGED SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH ISOLATED LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY HAVING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

SOILS ARE NORMALLY MOIST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER BASIN/LAKE ERIE
DRAINAGE.

STREAMFLOWS ARE CURRENTLY NEAR NORMAL IN THE OHIO VALLEY/LAKE ERIE
DRAINAGE.

...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK/SUMMARY...

THE WEATHER PATTERN HAS BROKEN THE EL NINO SIGNATURE PERSISTING THIS
PAST WINTER. FOR THE OHIO VALLEY AND LAKE ERIE DRAINAGE...MILDER
TEMPERATURES ALSO WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A MORE ACTIVE STORM TRACK
THIS SPRING WITH OCCASSIONAL PHASING OF THE SUBTROPICAL AND POLAR
JET STREAMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN EVENTS.

HYDROLOGICALLY...THE RESULTING STREAMFLOWS WILL AVERAGE ABOVE
NORMAL...AND WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH WATER LEVELS
HAVING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.

$$
WHEELER



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