Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FNUS71 KCTP 031514
FWSCTP

SPOT FORECAST FOR ROCK RUN PRE-IGNITION...DCNR MOSHANNON STATE FOREST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1114 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1110 EDT ON MAY 03.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE.

.DISCUSSION...

A WARM AND DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP THROUGH MONDAY.
MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL AVERAGE 40-50 PERCENT.



&&

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY...THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 69.
MIN HUMIDITY........33 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 6 TO 9 MPH.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-200 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 8100-10000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 1 TO 8 MPH...INCREASING TO 8 TO 13 MPH
                    LATE IN THE MORNING.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
SKY (%).............1      18     44     55     55
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV............
TEMP................57     63     66     68     68
RH..................42     35     33     34     36
20 FT WIND..........W 8    W 8    W 8    W 9    W 9
20 FT WIND GUST.....10     10     10     15     15
MIX HGT (FT)........2500   8100   9800   10000  9600
TRANSPORT WIND......W 5    NW 12  NW 12  W 9    W 8
LAL.................1      1      1      1      1
HAINES INDEX........4      4      5      5      5

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY...THEN BECOMING CLEAR.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 49.
MAX HUMIDITY........65 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 8 MPH.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7600-9400 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 0-300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 2 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).............48     27     14     1      1      1
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV............
TEMP................68     66     61     59     58     56
RH..................35     41     50     56     57     62
20 FT WIND..........W 8    W 8    W 8    W 8    W 8    SW 8
20 FT WIND GUST.....10     10     10     10     10     10
MIX HGT (FT)........9400   7600   2400   BLW100 200    200
TRANSPORT WIND......W 9    W 10   W 6    W 3    SW 3   W 2
LAL.................1      1      1      1      1      1
HAINES INDEX........5      5      5      5      5      5

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 73.
MIN HUMIDITY........41 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 13 MPH.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-200 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 7500-8800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 1 TO 10 MPH...INCREASING TO 14 TO 17
                    MPH LATE IN THE MORNING.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).............0      10     11     27     39     39
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV............
TEMP................54     53     62     67     69     67
RH..................65     65     51     45     42     42
20 FT WIND..........SW 7   SW 8   SW 9   SW 12  SW 13  SW 13
20 FT WIND GUST.....10     10     15     15     15     15
MIX HGT (FT)........BLW100 200    5200   8500   8800   8600
TRANSPORT WIND......SW 1   S 2    SW 10  SW 15  SW 15  SW 16
LAL.................1      1      1      1      1      1
HAINES INDEX........5      5      5      5      5      3

$$
FORECASTER...WFO CTP
REQUESTED BY...RYAN LING
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150503.ROCKR.01/CTP



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