Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS48 KWNS 260831
SWOD48
SPC AC 260830

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0330 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

VALID 291200Z - 041200Z

...DISCUSSION...
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE EARLIER TRENDS OF LOW-LATITUDE SPEED
MAX TRANSLATING ACROSS THE NRN GULF BASIN AND FL PENINSULA DURING
THE DAY4 PERIOD.  THIS FEATURE SHOULD INDUCE SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTION
ALONG THE CNTRL GULF COAST AND PERHAPS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ERN GULF
BASIN DURING THE DAY3 PERIOD.  CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING AND OUTFLOW
MAY DISRUPT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY FIELD ACROSS THE
PENINSULA...POSSIBLY LIMITING WHAT COULD OTHERWISE BE A POTENTIAL
SEVERE EPISODE.  LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SFC LOW MAY TRACK NEWD
ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE INTO SERN GA WHICH COULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE PENINSULA IF SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY
IS PRESENT.  FOR NOW WILL NOT INTRODUCE 15 PERCENT SEVERE PROBS DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY BUT THIS SCENARIO WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE
UPGRADE IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

..DARROW.. 04/26/2015



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