Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 200453

1153 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2015

Issued am 410 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

Big upper level trough is finally swinging through the area,
bringing with it enough to ascent to kick off another round (and
likely final round) of precipitation across the area. According to
water vapor imagery the axis of the low still sits across central
and eastern Kansas, so the bulk of the lift is working its way
through the area at this time. Radar trends over the past couple
hours indicate some scattered development across central and eastern
Kansas. There is a small amount of instability on the order of 200
to 500 J/kg of CAPE, which is giving these showers a convective
element. The lack of any appreciable wind shear should keep these
showers from getting very strong, but there could be an isolated
storm or two that gets some decent verticality and could produce
some small hail or an isolated wind gust. Otherwise, just expecting
off and on rain within the showery activity through the late evening
before it finally moves out. Through the early part of the week
gusty northwest winds will keep the moisture mostly scoured out. By
mid week moisture makes its way back into the plains and could bring
a wet period to at least areas just south of the forecast area.
Should the surface high progged to move through the area run a
little farther north than current model runs indicate that could
bring some wet conditions along the surface and low level boundary
for the middle part of the week. At any rate it appears the northern
half of the CWA will remain rather dry through the mid part of the
week. By the late part of the week into the weekend, a mid level
trough will make its way into the plains and use the available
moisture to bring more widespread rains. ECMWF and GFS are rather
different with the timing, as the EC is a bit quicker with the
timing, putting rain in the Friday and early weekend time period.
GFS is slower with the bulk of the precip occurring late Friday into
the weekend. Thereafter, it looks pretty dry for the second half of
the weekend, but with zonal flow over the area in the wake of the
low it could introduce some minor chances for rain with embedded
bits of energy.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

VFR clouds currently prevail across the terminals along with some
breezy northwest winds. What clouds there are out there will clear by
sunrise with mostly sunny skies expected much of Monday. Breezy
northwest winds early this morning will remain from the northwest
through much of the day, becoming rather gusty during the day. Wind
speeds will drop off to below 10 MPH by sunset Monday as they slowly
begin to back to the southwest.




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