Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 310450
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1150 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Tonight into Tuesday: Fire weather concerns will continue through
the remainder of the afternoon, especially over northwest Missouri
into northeast Kansas where relative humidity values have fallen to
near 20 percent and southwest winds have been breezy. Otherwise,
surface high pressure moves across the area tonight into Tuesday.
Dry weather will continue through Tuesday night. As for
temperatures, warmer overnight lows are expected tonight with
readings in the 40s. Highs on Tuesday afternoon will be slightly
warmer in some areas, with all locations in the 70s.

Wednesday/Thursday: Much of Wednesday looks dry as the overall
system has slightly slowed. The main exception may be a few
scattered showers or thunderstorms during the day as a warm front
lifts north through the forecast area. The best chance for this
isolated activity will be over central Missouri. Otherwise, expect a
warm day with highs in the middle to upper 70s, with perhaps a few
80-degree locations. Moisture will also steadily increase with the
warm sector returning, with dewpoints well into the 50s.
Thunderstorms will develop along a cold front during the afternoon
hours over eastern Nebraska into western Iowa. This convection will
develop/expand through the evening hours, eventually reaching the
northwest portions of the forecast area after sunset Wednesday. The
overall severe weather threat appears marginal, with the highest
probability of strong to isolated severe storms over far northwest
Missouri. The primary limiting factor will be the timing of
convection reaching the CWA, where the loss of stronger diurnal
instability will be lost, as well as the anticipated linear
evolution of the convection and gradual undercut from the
thunderstorm cold pools. While storms may undergo a weakening trend,
there remains the potential for a few severe wind gusts in the most
robust activity. The best chance for precipitation will occur
Wednesday night through Thursday morning with the passage of the
front. Total precipitation amounts with this first round of
thunderstorms will average one-half inch, with higher amounts in the
more robust thunderstorm activity.

Rain will eventually push south of much of the forecast area during
the day Thursday as the surface front stalls just south of the CWA,
which is further north than previous thinking. Of course, the
frontal position will also likely be dependent on Wed night
convection. If in fact the front remains south of the CWA on
Thursday during peak heating, the primary severe weather threat on
Thursday will remain south of the forecast area. Slightly cooler air
will filter into the area during the day Thursday, with highs in the
60s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A few lingering showers and a few isolated thunderstorms will
continue to be possible Thursday night into early Friday morning as
the slow-moving frontal boundary pushes southward, then rainfall
should begin clearing out of the area during the daytime hours
Friday. Cooler temperatures are expected Friday and especially
Friday night as the front clears out of the region, and there`s a
potential for patchy frost throughout the forecast area Saturday
morning as a surface high builds into the region and cooler air
sinks into the eastern Plains.

More seasonable temperatures will return for Saturday and Sunday as
southerly flow returns on the back side of the surface high and
ridging builds across the High Plains, allowing highs to return into
the 60s to lower 70s by early next week. Another round of showers
and storms is possible by the end of the forecast period Monday
afternoon and evening, but have kept PoPs fairly low to account for
uncertainty in the setup.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1149 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR conditions will dominate the terminals over the next 24 hours.
Only issue to watch will be the wind as a modest surface high slides
across region. This will make winds rather light and variable for much
of the day.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 721 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

Have allowed the Red Flag warning, in effect for Monday, to expire as
evening conditions are starting to calm winds and allow humidity
values to begin rebounding. Overnight a surface high will slide
across the region, with the combination of nocturnal boundary layer
decoupling and a relaxing pressure gradient allowing winds to become
light and variable. Expect surface winds to generally prevail from
the north and/or east after sunrise Tuesday with speeds less than 10
MPH. However, still expect another day of low humidity values in the
afternoon as Gulf moisture wont arrive in the region till Wednesday
along with a strong southerly wind across Kansas and Missouri. As a
result, while conditions exceeding critical fire weather criteria are
not currently expected, thoughts are that both Tuesday and Wednesday
could experience heightened fire danger. Tuesday due to low humidity
and a light and variable wind; Wednesday due to strong and gusty
winds with our fine fuels still well cured. Wednesday night into
Thursday widespread rain and a return of cooler temperatures will
mitigate any fire concerns over the later periods of the work week
into the weekend.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Blair
LONG TERM...Laflin
AVIATION...Cutter
FIRE WEATHER...Cutter





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