Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 041118

618 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015

Issued at 337 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

A cold front that is draped from northeastern Iowa through
southwestern Kansas and is likely brushing the northwest corner of
Missouri. Strong isentropic lift around the 305K layer was aiding
the continuation of thunderstorms in the vicinity of this front in
northwestern Missouri. This convection should persist this morning
being driven mainly by what looks like a MCV over northern Missouri.
A lack of shear and instability should keep this activity below
severe limits. Cloud from this convective cluster, as well as from
convection over Kansas may inhibit our peak heating and thus limit
just how much instability is able to build during the day.
None-the-less, the development of modest instability of around 2000
J/kg seems likely in the vicinity of the frontal boundary over
northeastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri. Shear weakens
considerably the further south one is from the boundary. But in the
vicinity of and to the north of the boundary, shear is stronger,
roughly in the 30 - 40 kt range. Thinking that given the CAPE/SHEAR
combination, a few severe storms should develop during the afternoon
hours in the vicinity of the front, likely over north central KS
eastward through northeastern KS and northwestern MO. These look to
be more multi-cell with a threat of large hail and damaging winds
being the biggest hazards.

That front should lift further north during the day Tuesday with the
forecast area seeing mid 80 degree heat and a limited potential for
convection. With the front lifted north, taking the pooling of
moisture with it, instability looks much weaker. For now, have kept
the forecast dry for Tuesday.

This southwesterly flow pattern will persist throughout the
remainder of the forecast. For Wednesday, a shortwave trough will
into the Plains with another round of possible storms expected to
either move into or develop within the forecast area. At this time,
the best combination of instability and shear looks to be over
central Kansas. So the threat of severe weather further east, and
through our forecast area, looks to be low at this point. With the
southwesterly flow persisting, we`ll see fairly high chances for
thunderstorms through much of the remainder of the forecast.
Fortunately, at this time, the threat of severe weather is low
through much of this period given weak upper flow and resultant weak
shear. But given the time of year and the pattern in general, the
possibility for a few severe storms through the extended portion of
the forecast can not be ruled out.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 618 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

Showers and perhaps some thunderstorms are developing south of the
terminals and will possibly affect them over the next several hours
as they build north. Have added several hours of a SHRA VCTS group
to the beginning of the forecast to account for this. The evolution of
this activity is very uncertain but it should tend to lift north into
the terminals over the next few hours and then move away later this
morning or early this afternoon. Beyond this activity, the chances
for storms look to have a decent chance of staying north of all of
the terminals and mainly be focused over extreme northeastern KS and
northwestern MO. With convection expected to stay north of the
terminals, have maintained a VFR forecast. There may be some
restrictions if a stronger shower moves over a terminal this morning,
but with a scattered nature anticipated will keep VFR conditions
prevailing this morning too.




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