Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 141700
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1200 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 333 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

The main feature of interest in the short term is a closed upper
level low that is evident on Satellite imagery this morning across
the western Red River Valley. This closed low will move into eastern
Kansas by this evening. Mid-level moisture is moving into the area
out ahead of this low which will provide for partly to mostly cloudy
skies today. However, precipitation is not expected during the day
today as the lower levels look to remain dry as a surface ridge of
high pressure remains in control. Highs will range mainly into the
mid 60s. Tonight the upper level low will open into an open wave
across the eastern Plains. Low level moisture will return this
evening as high pressure shift northeast into the Great Lakes. weak
isentropic lift will help to provide scattered showers across the
forecast area tonight. These showers will linger into Wednesday as
the upper level trough finally migrates slowly eastward across the
CWA in response to an upper level trough digging southward across
the eastern Rockies into the Four Corners region. Light scattered
showers will again be possible across the entire area on Wednesday.
Highs will be in the low to mid 60s. There may be a brief respite in
precipitation chances on Wednesday night as the slow moving upper
level trough exits the area however, we will quickly turn our
attention westward to the aforementioned Four Corners trough.

In response to the upper level trough digging into the Four Corners
region on Wednesday/Wednesday night, lee cyclogenesis will be
underway with a surface low developing in southeastern Colorado. On
Thursday this surface low and an attendant cold front will move into
the central Plains. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to move
into the area on Thursday. This cold front will move through the
area on Thursday night continuing shower and thunderstorm chances.
On Friday the upper level system will slowly begin to move into the
Southern Plains. Moisture will continue to stream northward out of
the Gulf out ahead of this upper system and showers and
thunderstorms will continue. Models difference arise as to how
quickly this upper low shifts eastward but all models suggest that
showers and thunderstorm chance will stick with us through the
weekend before finally drying out on sometime on Monday. Friday will
be the warmest day during this stretch with highs in the upper 60s
to lower 70s otherwise expect 60s through the weekend into early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1159 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

VFR conditions will prevail through the afternoon hours as surface
high pressure exits the area. Overnight, building cloud cover and
light precipitation will develop ahead of a closed low to the
southwest. This will linger through the remainder of the forecast
period as the low center slowly moves north. Ceilings may become MVFR
at times as this system works its way through the area. Winds will
generally stay out of the southeast between 5-8 kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Welsh






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