Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 170447

1147 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

A large, closed, cutoff low spinning over the Four Corners area will
be the main concern for our area for late this week and through this
weekend. For tonight and much of Friday, shortwave ridging ahead of
the cutoff low should help to keep most of the area dry with
relatively warm temperatures. Higher resolution models as well as
SREF probability plots keep the bulk of convection over central to
western Kansas and Nebraska. But there is a small chance of some
activity surviving further east and affecting far northwestern
Missouri and extreme northeastern Kansas late tonight and early
tomorrow morning. This activity, should it make into the area,
doesn`t look to be strong or severe, and have just continued the
slight chance PoPs from the previous forecast. Given that we look to
be in the midst of shortwave riding on Friday, temperatures look to
climb into the mid to upper 70s. What could throw a wrench into this
is if cloud cover is much thicker than expected. But even with
broken to overcast skies forecast, warm advection and building
thicknesses suggest warmer temperatures will prevail.

Friday night through Saturday looks to be the best chances for
widespread showers and thunderstorms to move into the area. The
upper low is expected to have moved into eastern Colorado by late
Friday night, shifting the best potential for precipitation to the
east accordingly. Convection should again develop over central
Kansas and Nebraska Friday afternoon/evening but as the upper low
drifts east, it will support the storms surviving into eastern
Kansas and western Missouri by early Monday morning. This initial
round should move east but there will likely be additional showers
and storms develop and/or move into the area throughout the day. The
threat of severe weather continues to look rather low through this
period. The strongest shear looks to remain to our west and
instability just never gets a chance to really build.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

Sunday through Thursday: The closed upper low will have transitioned
into an open wave at the start of the period. While the evolution
from overnight convection Saturday night is unknown, the pattern
would suggest a precipitation-free window during Sunday morning. If
this can happen and some clearing can occur ahead of the upper wave
and accompanying cold front, sufficient instability for strong
convection may materialize. Deep layer shear would support the
potential for storm organization, although weak low-level
directional shear is currently projected. Will have to closely
monitor the evolution of the environment on Sunday as another round
of thunderstorms may develop just ahead of the upper low, as
conditions may be conducive for a few severe storms Sunday
afternoon. The cold front will push through Sunday evening, with
only lingering chances for scattered showers. Assuming the general
speed of the upper low remains on track, precipitation is expected
to come to an end Sunday night into early Monday morning.

High pressure builds into the region Monday and Tuesday, resulting
in dry weather for the area. A cold front will gradually sag
southward Wednesday into Thursday, spawning additional chances for
showers and thunderstorms. As for temperatures, near to slightly
below seasonal levels are expected each day, with highs in the lower
to middle 60s and lows in the upper 30s and 40s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1147 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

VFR conditions to dominate through much of the fcst period...with
winds remaining from the east and southeast between 5-10 kts. Clouds
will be on the increase after 15z as long awaited storm system now
across the Four Corners region slowly tracks east. Cannot rule out
some isolated thunderstorms during the late afternoon...however more
concentrated activity will likely hold off until after 00z.




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