Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 152338
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
638 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

Tonight through Sunday: Currently, weak upper low is passing through
the area, with remaining ascent pushing eastward. This will lead to
a west-to-east end to the light shower activity over the CWA, with
most of the rain exiting the forecast area around sunset. Shortwave
ridging will occur in the wake of the upper low on Thursday,
resulting in much of the daytime hours dry on Thursday. The closed
upper low over the Four Corners region will slowly open and shift
eastward into the Central Plains into the weekend. Precipitation
chances will likewise increase with time over the CWA, with the best
chances currently projected Saturday into Sunday. Instability will
increase on Friday ahead of the system, with thunder accompanying
some of the precipitation. Lapse rates are not all that impressive
by Saturday, and with abundant cloud cover/precipitation, overall
instability will be marginal at best. Still, strong upper ascent on
Sat/Sat night will help spawn widespread weak convection, with some
activity producing brief periods of moderate rainfall. The overall
severe weather threat during this multi-day period remains low. As
for temperatures, Thursday and Friday are expected to be the warmest
during the forecast package, with highs in the 70s. Maximum
temperatures will gradually cool a few degrees both Saturday and
Sunday as the upper low approaches/moves over the CWA, with an
eventual cold front passing through on Sunday. Upon the frontal
passage Sunday evening, precipitation will finally come to an end
across the area.

Monday through Wednesday: Temperatures will be near to slightly
below seasonal levels each day. Dry weather is expected on Monday
and much of Tuesday as surface high pressure builds into the region.
As the high shifts southward, a weak frontal boundary associated
with a large upper low over the northern CONUS may settle into the
forecast area by Tuesday night into Wednesday, providing a slight
chance of showers.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 637 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

Latest model guidance now suggesting less of a threat for developing
IFR cigs later tonight due to an influx of slightly drier air. For
now...have backed off on timing by a few hrs for MCI and IXD...and
trends will be monitored through the coming hrs to see if further
backtracking will be necessary with the 6z package.
Otherwise...lingering MVFR (potentially IFR) cigs will begin to improve
after the 14z time frame with VFR then expected through the duration
of the fcst cycle.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...32





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