Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 012228
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
527 PM CDT Fri May 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 406 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

Tonight - Sunday:

Couple of weak features which will affect the region tonight into
Saturday. First one is the residual mid cloud and isolated light
showers tied to a departing shortwave trough whose southern axis
extends into southeastern NE. Lacking much support/very little
instability only expect a few light showers/sprinkles will affect
parts of northern MO into the early evening hours before
dissipating.

Clouds will probably thin out later this evening only to increase
towards morning. Water vapor satellite imagery shows considerable
mid/high level clouds which will stream eastward from the
southwestern U.S. and overspread the region on Saturday. Operational
models have picked up on a signal and generate scattered weak
convection over northwest MO Saturday morning. Looks like a
combination of increasingly moist isentropic ascent on the 300K and
305K surfaces with a corresponding h8 moisture convergence max while
moisture begins to deepen and flow northward from the Southern
Plains. A good deal of mid/high level cloud cover expected which
will limit heating and will go a bit under guidance for max
temperatures.

Sunday is looking dry due to a lack of any discernible systems while
h8 temperatures and moisture flux increase. Will definitely feel
more summerish. Should be able to reach into the lower 80s under
gusty southerly winds.

Sunday night - Tuesday:

The weather will become a bit more complex and active starting
Sunday night. A strong shortwave trough passing across central
Canada and the north central states will send a cold front southward
...becoming quasi-stationary over northern MO by Monday morning  for
the next 24-36 hours. Just a bit suspicious of the models southern
extent of the front as the boundary will lack a push from the north
while under an increasingly southwesterly flow aloft. Due to the
proximity of the boundary and the likelihood of 1 or 2 impulses
lifting northeast within the southwesterly flow will maintain the
likely PoPs across northern MO through Monday night. Later forecasts
may be able to lower PoPs across the southern CWA as I think there
will be a fairly sharp drop off in rain chances south of the stalled
front.

Tuesday is shaping up as one of the drier days as the front will
likely lift northward as a shortwave ridge aloft lifts northeast
through the region.

Expect warm and slightly humid conditions south of the front.

Wednesday - Friday:

The medium range models continue to advertise a shortwave trough
lifting northeast from northwest Mexico through the Central Plains
on Wednesday. While there will likely be some adjustments in timing
once the system reaches landfall the GFS and ECMWF have been
consistent with this feature. By mid week there will have been  time
for deeper moisture to have been drawn into the region. Models may
be a bit under forecasting the surface dewpoints and the current
forecast reflects a model consensus. As the shortwave trough lifts
northeast we should see scattered convection sweep by, with the
western CWA having the best chance. While too early to commit to any
severe chances the increased instability does warrant attention.

Rain chances and seasonal temperatures will continue into Thursday
and Friday. Chance PoPs are mainly a reflection to model uncertainty
on how to handle a Northern/Central Plains cold front. The ECMWF
plows the front into MO while the GFS keeps it at bay to the west.
Will use a model blend for now which favors low chance PoPs.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 519 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

Thickening clouds are moving into the area and will stay in place
through the early portion of Friday evening. Will likely see VFR bkn
to ovc during the initial period, though this feature will scatter
out later this evening with clearing conditions expected overnight.
Cloud cover will once again develop Saturday morning as a weak
disturbance could produce some spotty precip through the latter half
of the period. Substantial dry air at the surface may prevent this
development at all, however. Surface winds will veer with time while
generally hovering around 8 kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...Welsh





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