Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 200821
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
321 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 321 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

Cool, breezy, and dry conditions are expected today as the surface
low responsible for the past weekend`s wet weather deepens and lifts
northeast into the Great Lakes region, and its parent upper trough
continues to build slowly to the southeast. Although afternoon RHs
may drop into the 25 to 30 percent range and will be coincident with
northwest winds in excess of 20 to 25 mph, damp ground and greening
native grasses should keep the fire danger below a critical level
this afternoon through early this evening. Cold air advection will
keep highs near or just slightly above 60 degrees this afternoon,
even despite nearly full sunshine during the daylight hours.

A more westerly fetch to Tuesday`s flow and slightly increased 850
hPa temperatures will help highs increase a bit into the mid to
upper 60s across the CWA. A weak frontal boundary will then begin to
set up south of I-70, and will drift very slowly southward Tuesday
night through Wednesday night. Upper-level support for precipitation
will be fairly weak throughout this period, but at least a few
widely scattered showers or a very isolated thunderstorm will be
possible near the boundary from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening. Cooler temperatures are expected on the north side of the
front Wednesday, bringing highs back to near the 60 degree mark in
all but our far southern tier of counties for Wednesday afternoon,
and temperatures will remain below normal Thursday with surface
winds remaining out of the east. Any lingering light showers tied to
the slow-moving front will push out of the region on Thursday.

Thunderstorm chances will begin to increase Friday as a shortwave
trough lifts out of the four corners region and into the central
Plains, and kicks deepening surface low pressure out into western KS
by Friday afternoon. Model agreement is fairly high for the position
and strength of the system on Friday, so have continued to up PoPs
for Friday afternoon through Friday night across the CWA. Shear will
be quite strong as surface winds back in response to the approaching
surface low and the upper jet brings west southwest winds of 120+
kts over the region aloft, but instability will remain in question
due to the short period of time the atmosphere will have to recover
from the cool, drier flow expected through at least midweek. Changes
to the position and timing of this system are expected as the work
week progresses, but this system warrants some attention moving
forward, especially if the currently good model agreement continues
and the track of the system doesn`t change significantly. Rainfall
associated with Friday`s system should gradually taper off Saturday
morning, leaving behind a few lower-end chances for light rainfall
and slightly cooler temperatures for the remainder of the weekend.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

VFR clouds currently prevail across the terminals along with some
breezy northwest winds. What clouds there are out there will clear by
sunrise with mostly sunny skies expected much of Monday. Breezy
northwest winds early this morning will remain from the northwest
through much of the day, becoming rather gusty during the day. Wind
speeds will drop off to below 10 MPH by sunset Monday as they slowly
begin to back to the southwest.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Cutter






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