Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 191227
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
727 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 723 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

Made major adjustments to the forecast. Lowered PoPs considerably for
the rest of the morning south and west of a h7 vorticity lobe that
defines the back edge of showers over northern and into central
MO...roughly along an arc from St. Joseph to Sedalia. Trend of the
HRRR, RUC and even the NAM supports the above scenario. Convective
cluster over north central OK may graze the far southern counties
this afternoon so likely PoPs this area seems reasonable. So, for a
good portion of today many areas will see little in the way of
measurable rainfall. Still believe we`ll see a band of stratiform
type rain tied to the post-frontal baroclinic zone/deformation zone
that will slide ese across the CWA from late afternoon through this
evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 407 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

Today - Tonight:

Today`s weather will be governed by the transition of an upper level
closed low to an open wave. Latest water vapor satellite imagery
shows the closed upper low has now shifted east into west central KS
early this morning. A shortwave trough digging into the Northern
High Plains will push this feature and its associated convection
through the CWA today with the rain ending from west to east this
evening.

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will accompany a
couple mid level vorticity lobes as they rotate northeast across KS
and MO. No severe storms are expected today as less than impressive
MUCAPEs in the 400-800 J/kg range and bulk shear values around 25kts
will limit the strength of the storms. Like yesterday a few cells
could produce small hail during peak heating. Temperatures will
again be negatively impacted by the convection and cloud cover. A
more organized band of stratiform rain tied to post-frontal
frontogenesis and an elongated deformation zone overspreads the
region during the evening hours.

Monday - Tuesday:

The Northern Plains upper trough will gradually sharpen south and
shift east on Monday with strong subsidence spilling southeast on
the backside of the trough. Clearing skies will help offset cold air
advection yielding slightly below average temperatures both days.

The operational models are showing similar weak signals on Tuesday
that we`ll need to start considering the chance of some shower
activity. The models generate a series of weak strung out vorticity
lobes stretching southeast from NE through MO. Moisture will be the
main limiting factor so if any rain forms it will be light and
scattered.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 407 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

Slightly below normal temperatures will stretch through the latter
half of the week as deep low pressure very slowly transitions SE
across the Great Lakes, and northwest flow aloft ushers cooler
temperatures into the region. At the same time a surface boundary
will drift southward through Wednesday, leaving the forecast area in
north to northeast surface flow and also helping to keep highs in
the lower to mid 60s. A few light showers and isolated storms are
possible over the southern tier of the CWA Wednesday and Wednesday
night as the front heads south, then a period of drier conditions is
expected on the north side of the boundary Thursday.

Southerly surface flow will eventually return by the end of the work
week ahead of a shortwave trough that will eject out of the desert
southwest and into the Plains by Friday. Widely scattered showers
and storms are possible as early as Friday afternoon, but are more
likely Friday night as the upper trough passes over the CWA. Timing
of this system is still a bit uncertain, and the probability of any
embedded storms will depend on how quickly southerly flow and low-
level moisture return to the region ahead of the shortwave trough.
At this time, the southern track of the associated surface low and
the environment in place ahead of the system suggests that the
potential for strong storms is very low. The clouds and any rain
associated with the system will keep temperatures down despite the
transition to southerly flow, so have kept highs mainly in the lower
60s through the end of the work week and into the weekend. Current
model trends show the wet weather clearing out by Saturday evening
and a dry Sunday, but will have to watch the potential for Friday`s
system to slow down and impact the coming weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 635 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

Scattered showers and a few storms lifting north through northern MO
may define the last of the rain till late this afternoon and evening
when deformation band of stratiform type rain moves in. The onset of
gusty northwest winds will likely signal when this band will move in
with its MVFR ceilings. Till then think much of the day will only see
spotty hit/miss type showers. Thunderstorm risk looks minimal.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...Laflin
AVIATION...MJ






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