Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 250900
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
400 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Remnants of Friday`s severe weather across central Kansas is
currently moving through the area, and is rather weak. Scattered
thunderstorms are located across most of northwest Missouri and
northeast Kansas, but lack of any appreciable instability has kept
these storms from becoming more than a brief shower as they roll
through. Surface analysis around 08z indicates that the surface low
is still to the west of the forecast area, and that is also
represented by general southeasterly surface winds across most of
the area. While the sun is still down these showers will remain
relatively light, but as the day wears on and the mid level trough -
which is currently stacked on top of the aforementioned low just
west of here - rolls through the area more scattered showers will
form. There should be a slightly higher level of instability across
the area today, with the cooler temperatures associated with the mid
level trough overhead. So, some storms could grow tall and produce
some small hail. As the mid level trough moves through, it generally
opens up and loses some of its organization. The areas of low
pressure within the column also become a bit disjointed through the
day, so a traditional cold core thunderstorm/funnel day does not
appear to be in the cards, but a few storms through the day could
produce some small hail, and periods of heavy rain and gusty winds.
The focus for thunderstorm activity will be along a sagging cold
front that will drop south along with the surface low. The enhanced
convergence along that boundary should aid in getting storms fired
up. The boundary will initially be located north of the forecast
area, but by noon should be located along/near Interstate 70. By
tonight the cold front will be located south of the area, with a
surface ridge nosing in. This will effectively scour out the
moisture, and end any precipitation chances, likely by tonight.

With the cool dry air working its way into the area the next few
nights could be chilly, with lows in the upper 30s along the IA/MO
border, and 40s farther south. But with good insolation through the
day highs for the rest of the weekend and into next week will follow
a gradual warming trend, with 60s anticipated through early next
week, then well into the 70s by late next week. With shortwave
ridging over the area, despite the warmer and moister air moving in
through the late part of the week mid level ascent will be lacking
and low level convergence triggers will be absent, thus a dry
forecast is on tap throughout the next week.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

A mix of VFR and MVFR ceilings exist across the area, and anticipate
MVFR to gradually become dominant height with time and persist well
into forecast period. Weakening line of showers and t-storms are
approaching TAF sites, and only anticipate isolated/temporary periods
of thunder near terminals. Otherwise, scattered showers are expected
through sunrise, with gradually decreasing chances during the day
Saturday. Wind directions will steadily change as the low moves
across the area through Saturday evening.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...Blair






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