Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
FXUS63 KEAX 020853
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
353 AM CDT Sat May 2 2015
Issued at 351 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015
Today/Tonight: Several subtle upper disturbances will move through
the region, aiding in the development of scattered convection. The
most probable locations to receive light measurable precipitation
will be along and north of the Interstate 70 corridor. The most
active period should coincide with the approach of these impulses,
with this morning into the early afternoon one round, and another
possible overnight. Modest instability will gradually increase from
west to east during the day, and therefore a few scattered
thunderstorms will be possible this morning into the evening.
Temperatures should warm well into the 70s during the afternoon,
even with broken cloud cover. Overnight temperatures will remain in
the lower 60s to upper 50s in part to increased moisture advection
and cloud cover.
Sunday/Monday: A large upper trough skirting the US/Canada border
will send a cold front approaching the area by Sunday night. This
will be the primary focus for the most spatially concentrated area
for convection during this period. The front is expected to settle
near northwest Missouri on Monday before stalling, and with strong
daytime heating, convection is expected to develop over NW MO. Deep
layer shear is expected to be rather weak, unless a subtle upper
disturbance not yet resolvable can enhance speeds, although
moderate instability around MUCAPE 1500 J/kg will develop ahead of
the boundary. While severe weather is not likely, a few stronger
storms may evolve during the afternoon and evening hours.
Tuesday through Saturday: An active pattern looks to evolve across
much of the region, albeit severe weather probabilities still appear
low/uncertain at this time. A negatively-tilted shortwave trough is
projected to lift into the Plains Tuesday into Wednesday. In its
wake, continued southwesterly flow will establish over the region,
with several embedded upper disturbances expected to move through.
While specific details are not resolvable in this period for this
particular pattern, it is reasonable to believe several episodes of
convection will be possible for portions of the area. Questions
regarding an initial meridional wind field and the degree of
destabilization limits confidence/signal for severe weather. As for
temperatures, above normal readings are expected to continue, with
highs in the 70s and 80s.
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1124 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015
Thickening cloud cover will continue to roll in overnight in advance
of a weak disturbance which will aid in the development of some light
precipitation Saturday morning and through the afternoon. This is
likely to be spotty in nature so went with vcsh for the time being.
Ceilings will remain VFR during this time and will gradually scatter
out toward the late period of the forecast. Winds will remain steady
out of the south around 8-10 kts.