Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 161713

1213 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2015

Issued at 341 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

Well, we have been talking about it for the past few days but now it
will become the full focus of our attention. That of which I speak
is a slow moving upper level low, which is currently moving from the
Great Basin into the Four Corners Region and, which will be the
driving force for precipitation chances through the weekend. On the
positive side, this system will continue to bring much needed rain
to the area without the threat of severe weather.

This upper level system will settle into the Four Corners region
early this morning and will then move little over the next 24 hours.
As such the bulk of the precipitation should remain west of the
area. However, thunderstorms are expected to develop across western
and central Kansas today and an isolated storm associated with that
activity could clip the most northeast portion of the CWA this late
afternoon/evening but condition look to stay dry for today. Cloud
cover this morning may be slow to scatter and as such have lowered
highs a couple degrees but we still should achieve above average
temperature this afternoon once we do break out into sunshine.
Expect highs in the low to mid 70s.

Tonight, showers and thunderstorms that develop across central
Kansas may move far enough eastward that they may affect the western
CWA. This will happen as the upper level low finally begins its slow
migration into the High Plains. By Friday afternoon the upper level
low will move into eastern Colorado. In response to that weak upper
level ridging will move into the local area. Couple that with modest
southeasterly flow at the surface and temperatures will warm into
the mid to upper 70s even despite mostly cloudy skies. With that
southeasterly fetch and warm temperatures, moist and unstable
air will reside over the area. This will allow thunderstorms to
develop west of the area and move into the forecast area by late
afternoon/evening as a lead shortwave ejects out from the upper
level system.

Saturday looks to be the best chance for widespread showers and
thunderstorms with moderate rainfall. This will occur as the upper
level system moves into the western Plains and forces a cold front
into central Kansas. Showers and thunderstorms will move into the
area ahead of the front on the day Saturday and into Saturday night.
Saturday night into Sunday models depict the closed low opening up
and becoming an open wave. This should allow to speed up it easterly
progress. As such, the upper level trough  should shift through the
area Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. This will continue the
chance for showers and perhaps isolated thunder through that period
before the system and its associated precipitation finally shifts
east of the area by Monday.

The EC/GFS continue to be in good agreement Monday/Tuesday in
depicting upper level troughing across the northern Great Lakes.
This will leave the area in northwest flow aloft and will provide
for cool temperatures for the beginning of the work week. For
Monday, expect highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s with a couple
degree increase for Tuesday. Model solutions begin to diverge
Tuesday night as the EC shows the upper level trough remaining over
the Great Lakes and keeps the local area under northwest flow aloft.
The GFS shifts the upper trough off to the northeast and the local
area becomes under the influence of the warmer and wetter southern
stream bring the chance for showers on Tuesday night into Wednesday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

VFR conditions are expected through the rest of the afternoon and
evening hours. Similar to this morning, there may be a period of
reduced ceilings and/or visibility restrictions tomorrow morning. The
moisture that is around isn`t going anywhere and there some
indication in both the MOS guidance as well as condensation pressure
deficit plots of at least MVFR ceilings and visibility redeveloping
late tonight and persisting into tomorrow morning. So have added this
thinking to the forecasts.




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