Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 301704

1204 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2015

Issued at 309 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015

Start of the forecast period through early Friday will continue to
be benign with precip chances not entering into the forecast area
until Friday afternoon. Even with these chances, they`ll be
relatively confined to the northwestern portions of MO as surface
high pressure sitting over the eastern half of MO and into IL
keeps development elsewhere at bay. Given the weak forcing at
play and that any development will be on the mesoscale (or less),
lower resolution models are having a difficult time resolving and
agreeing on where exactly precip will set up. Have therefore
trended toward the higher-resolution models but even those are not
in full agreement with each other. Regardless, Friday afternoon
will mark the start of the well-advertised unsettled pattern that
the region is about to enter into.

Because of the aforementioned issues involving the ill-defined
focuses for convection throughout this upcoming weekend, lower
confidence in PoP forecast exists for the medium range time frame.
Essentially, precip is expected throughout the weekend but the
weekend is not expected to be a washout. With this type of pattern
setting up where zonal flow aloft dominates with ripples riding
through and little other forcing to focus on, it`s difficult to
hone in on specifics until time gets closer. Southerly to
southwesterly flow will commence, allowing for moisture and warmer
temps to be advected in. Additionally, instability will be making an
appearance. Therefore, couldn`t confidently go dry on a larger-
scale within the forecast area with the exception of Sunday, as
model run after model run across the various solutions suggest a
brief break falling on that day between the messy atmospheric
pattern and the organization of forcing mechanisms to hone in on
next week. Frontal boundary that has appeared run after run as
well appears to be approaching from the NW as early as late
Monday, but the models have had a tough time resolving this
feature temporally (and spatially). Hints at the boundary slowing
and possibly stalling are continuing to appear. What will be
interesting to watch is cyclogenesis over the central Plains by
the middle of next week out ahead of a trough entering into the
Pac NW and how it all will end up evolving.

Highs in the 70s will be the rule of thumb through at least the
early part of this weekend with 80s looking to appear on Sunday.
Guidance has continued to trend upward with the highs on Sunday
and looks to be the warmest day of the forecast period. Widespread
70s appear to again take over early next weekend with perhaps some
locations flirting with the 80 degree mark again on Monday.
Clouds, precip (or lack thereof), and the front could impact the
temps so something to keep in mind. The warmest night will be
overnight Sunday with lows struggling to drop below the 60 degree
mark. Dewpoints will also be on the rise as moisture advects in.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1204 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

VFR conditions will dominate at all the terminals over the next 24
hours. Only issue to watch will be the veering wind Friday morning as
the weak easterly wind gives way to a southerly flow as a near by
surface ridge moves farther east.




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