Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 150841

341 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2015

Issued at 340 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

Scattered showers are evident on radar early this morning which are
associated with a weakening upper level trough across the extreme
eastern Plains. Shower development is also being aided by weak
isentropic ascent. These scattered showers will continue through the
day today but should begin to diminish this afternoon as the upper
level system moves into the area and continues to weaken. Otherwise,
expect mostly cloudy skies today with highs in the low to mid 60s.
Once this upper level system weakens our attention will shift back
to the west where an upper level trough evident on satellite imagery
this morning closing itself off across the Great Basin. It is this
system that will be our rain producer for the end of the work week
and through the weekend. Conditions should remain dry tonight out
ahead of this system as it moves very slowly into the Four Corners
region over the next 24 hours. In response to this system digging
into the Four corners a cold front will develop across the western
Plains tonight. On Thursday, the upper level low will move very
little however, the cold front will push into the central Plains.
Thunderstorms will develop out ahead of the cold front Thursday
afternoon which may push far enough east to affect the western CWA.
Otherwise, dry conditions will continue into Thursday with highs in
the low to mid 70s.

Thursday night, models are in good agreement that the upper level
low will begin to push slowly eastward. Moisture will stream
northward out of the Gulf into the area out ahead of this system. A
lead impulse ejecting from the upper low will move through the area
on Thursday night bringing an increased chance for thunderstorms. As
such have chance POPs across the western CWA with slights across the
east. A few additional lead impulses will move through the area on
Friday and Friday night bringing the chance for a few more rounds of
thunderstorms. On Saturday models are consistent in pushing the
upper level low into the western Plains with continued shower and
thunderstorm chances. Saturday night models depict the upper level
system opening into an open wave and forcing a warm front into the
area. This will bring continued thunderstorm chances to the area
into Saturday night. Sunday the upper level trough moves across the
Plains state an forces a cold front through the CWA before the upper
system finally shifts into the area by Sunday night. Precipitation
chances should come to end by Monday as the upper level trough
pushes eastward. This dry period may be short-lived however as the
GFS suggest a vort max wrapping around an upper level low across the
western Great Lakes moving into the area.

As far as temperatures go, expect Thursday and Friday to be the
warmest days in the forecast period with highs in the low to mid
70s. Conditions will begin to gradually cool through the weekend
with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s Saturday and highs in the
mid 60s on Sunday. Behind the cold front on Monday, highs will be in
the low to mid 60s before warming a couple degrees on Tuesday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1149 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

Latest observations still showing MVFR conditions down across
Arkansas late this evening. As a result...have delayed onset of MVFR
restrictions until after 12z. Through the remainder of the
overnight...non-restricting -SHRA activity to impact area
terminals...with this trend continuing through much of the day before
conditions begin to dry after 22z. Once MVFR low stratus sets in after
14z...expect MVFR restrictions through the conclusion of the fcst




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