Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 040458

1158 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015

Issued at 257 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

The pattern will look to remain active through this forecast period
with several rounds of thunderstorms over the next seven days. The
first round of thunderstorms is expected tonight out ahead of an
approaching cold front. That cold front is analyzed extending from
near Sioux Falls to Hill City, Kansas. This front will continue to
sink southeast this evening and convection is expected to blossom
along the front across Nebraska. This front will continue to slowly
south tonight reaching extreme northwest Missouri. Thunderstorms
will move into the northern Missouri and northeastern Kansas after
midnight however, weak forcing and weak instability will keep
thunderstorms of the garden variety. Models agree that the front
will stall across northwest Missouri into southern Iowa by tomorrow
morning however, models are also indicating that showers and
thunderstorms will continue southward into the southern CWA on an
outflow boundary. As such, have likely POPs across northern Missouri
with chance POPs elsewhere. The overnight/morning round of
thunderstorms will diminish by mid-morning however, tomorrow
afternoon the models indicate an subtle upper level shortwave will
move across northeastern Kansas into southern Iowa. This feature
coupled with differential heating alone the stalled surface boundary
will spark another round of convection. Shear and lift continue to
be weak however, instability of 1500-2500 J/kg of CAPE will allow
the chance for a few strong storms capable of producing low-end
severe hail and locally damaging winds. The best chance for storms
appears to be along and north of I-70 and as such have delineated
the POPs accordingly with categorical POPs along and north of Hwy
36, likelies along the I-70 corridor and chance and slight chance
POPs across the south. On Monday night/Tuesday the front will being
to lift north in response to height rises across the area as a
negatively tilted upper level trough moves from the southwestern
CONUS into the western High Plains. Conditions will be warm and
breezy but dry on Tuesday with highs in the low to mid 80s.

The extended timeframe looks to feature several rounds of showers
and thunderstorms. The first will come Wednesday morning as the
aforementioned upper level trough moves into the Plains. This trough
seems to weaken as is does and considering the time of day (morning)
that storms will move into the area, severe weather is not
anticipated. Thunderstorms are expected through the Day on Wednesday
into Wednesday night before the upper level trough shifts into the
Upper Midwest. Another upper level trough will slowly dig south
along the western CONUS on Thursday and slowly more to the eastern
Rockies by Sunday. Several lead shortwave are progged to eject out
from this trough through that period and move into the area on
southwest flow aloft. This will allow for the chance of
thunderstorms everyday through this period however, differences in
timing of these shortwave makes it difficult to pin down the best
periods for thunderstorm activity.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to weaken and shift
eastward along the MO/IA border, and should not impact any of the TAF
sites this evening. Additional isolated thunderstorms may develop
across eastern KS and western MO after 09z, but probability and
coverage of any storms will be low. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
expected to persist through the forecast period.




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