Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 280351

1051 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2015

Issued at 236 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

Very benign weather pattern currently in place over the Lwr Missouri
valley as region resides in between active northern and southern
jetstream members this afternoon. Main upper low responsible for
yesterday/s severe weather in the Lone Star State beginning to slowly
track to the east this afternoon with identifiable deformation band
cloud axis lifting north across the CWA. Meanwhile closer to the
deck...latest sfc analysis continues to show a strengthening ridge
axis extending south across the upper/mid-Mississippi Valley...which
is ensuring cool northerly winds continue to penetrate into the area.
Main concern heading into tonight remains similar to yesterday...with
patchy frost again a possibility across our far northeastern zones
early Tuesday morning. Looking at this morning/s low temps...and
taking into account that tomorrow/s 925 and 850 temps are expected to
be a degree or two warmer than today...expect conditions to be even
less favorable for widespread frost development as compared to this
morning. As a result...will again hold off on any frost related
headlines this afternoon with lows expected to fall into the upper
30s (far northeast) to lower to middle 40s closer along...and south
of the Missouri River.

Main upper low to continue tracking east across the southern Plains
into the lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Aside from upper
cirrus...feature should pass with little impact on our area as main
precip shield remains well south. As this occurs
however...upper-level highs will begin building a little each day
which should lead to a steady increase in temps through the middle
stages of the work week. In fact...would not be surprised to see
some lower to middle 70s across the area as early as Wednesday.
Slightly cooler temps expected on Thursday as weak cold air
advection follows the passage of a weak shortwave and backdoor cold
front early Wednesday...however features collectively will pass with
no notable impacts.

Dry weather to persist right through Friday before high pressure
works into the Southeast and developing return flow allows for
modest moisture advection back into the Plains/Lwr Missouri Valley
by the weekend. Latest model guidance now showing increasing chances
for precipitation beginning Saturday/Saturday night as frontal
boundary slowly descends and stalls north of the region. This feature
combined with increasing southerly flow/moisture transport in advance
of a developing leeside trough should promote organized shwr/storms
through early next week. From this vantage point...most concentrated
activity looks to hold off until later Sunday night/Monday when main
cold front approaches. For now...will highlight precip chances
through the period with chance pops as attempting to focus on any
one particular weak embedded shortwave this far out is pretty trivial.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1049 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

VFR conditions expected through the period. Outside of periodic
cirrus sheild, may see a few VFR cumulus during the mid/late
afternoon on Tuesday.




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