Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 182148
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
448 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 447 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

Thunderstorms from this morning and afternoon are generally moving
out of the area this evening. An area of some stronger convection is
still ongoing across far NC Missouri, where some residual
instability lies. The lack of any notable wind shear that far from
the mid level trough should keep the storms from being too rowdy,
but with a few small hail reports through the day, they are
demonstrating some ability to be strong. Expect this activity to
wane through the rest of the evening as instability decreases with
time. With the large cutoff low still well off to the west the
influence of mid level ascent will generally be minimal through the
overnight hours, and this could bring a lull in the action for the
overnight hours, with perhaps some light and spotty activity ongoing
through the night. By early Sunday morning the low will finally be
more influenced by the mid level flow and eject out into the area
during the day. This will bring another round of rain across the
area. A small amount of instability will be present for this
activity, on the order of 500 to 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE, with marginal
shear, on the order of around 20 to perhaps 30 kts. All told the
severe weather potential for Sunday will be rather low, however
there could be an isolated strong storm or two. As far as timing of
precipitation is concerned, it appears that a majority of the
overnight and early morning will be dry or spotty precipitation, but
by mid to late morning the precipitation will fire back up on a more
widespread basis. This appears to be in response to the mid level
wave as it finally ejects east. Accompanying the wave will be a
surface cold front which will effectively scour out the usable
moisture, thus ending precipitation chances with its passage. For
the early to middle part of next week expect mostly dry conditions
with temperatures in the 50s to 60s, gradually warming through the
rest of the week.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 447 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

As the middle of the upcoming week approaches, the forecast area
could see some unsettled weather once more. Convergence aloft on the
backside of an upper trough over the northern Great Lakes/Canadian
border, along with moisture to work with could allow for showers and
some thunderstorms to affect primarily the southern half of the
forecast area through the end of the week. However, model
discrepancies by late in the week through next weekend lower
confidence in the certainty of precip chances. If the ECMWF proves
to be correct, then late in this forecast period could be active as
a low skirts by the MO/AR border. Conversely, while support aloft
exists according to the GFS, it depicts a surface high settling in
through the weekend despite a shortwave trough moving in and phasing
with the larger pattern.

Seasonable temps can be expected in the latter half of the week with
highs in the 60s and lows generally in the 40s. The only wrench in
the temperature forecast could be the development of a cutoff low as
opposed to an open wave traversing through late in the week (ECMWF
vs. GFS, respectively; discussed above).


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

Light to moderate rain, with perhaps an isolated, brief pocket of
heavy rain will move through the area through the next few hours.
There could be a couple isolated rumbles of thunder, but overall the
threat for lightning/thunder is minimal with this activity. There
will likely be a lull in the rain through the evening and
overnight hours, before another round picks up on Sunday morning.
Expect some spotty activity prior to sunrise Sunday, with confidence
rising in widespread moderate rain by the late morning to early
afternoon hours.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Leighton
LONG TERM...lg
AVIATION...Leighton





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