Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 031704

1204 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015

Issued at 345 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

Today/Tonight: Isentropic ascent has led to the development of
scattered showers and thunderstorms across eastern Kansas early this
morning. A separate area of showers over SW IA has paralleled the
Missouri border. Some of this activity may slide into far northern
Missouri over the next few hours, with additional isolated
development to the south possible. Additionally, its cold pool has
pushed south into northwest Missouri, and its conceivable this may
help spawn further development. Expect all this activity to work its
way east into portions of the forecast area through mid-morning
before convection should exit and/or wane, leaving the remainder of
the daylight hours dry. Overall instability and deep layer shear is
meager, therefore no severe weather is expected. Skies will gradually
become mostly sunny following the exit of convective cloud debris,
and a warm day will commence with highs reaching the 80s. By tonight,
a large upper trough skirting the US/Canada border will send a cold
front approaching the area from the north. This feature will be the
primary focus for convection tonight, with thunderstorms developing
along/south of the boundary. The highest probabilities for measurable
precipitation will be located along and north of the Interstate 70
corridor overnight.

Monday through the week ahead: The front is expected to settle over
far northern Missouri on Monday before stalling. One or more rounds
of thunderstorms are possible Monday into Monday night. Convection
that develops during the afternoon and evening in areas that can
destabilize from morning convection will have the potential to be
strong to marginally severe. The most favorable zone for severe
weather will be near the frontal boundary, where better directional
shear and low-level focus will exist. To the south, moderate
instability is expected, but storms may tend to be short-lived as
mid/upper tropospheric winds will be weak, owing to poor storm
ventilation. The best chance for storms will again be along and north
of the Interstate 70 corridor.

The frontal boundary will gradually lift northward on Tuesday in
response to pressure falls with the approaching upper system. Much
of Tuesday will be dry for the forecast area. Highs will once again
warm into the 80s. Focus then turns to a negatively-tilted shortwave
trough projected to lift into the Plains Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Thunderstorms will develop well to the west of the CWA
Tuesday night and push east into the area on Wednesday. While the
timing is climatologically not conducive for severe weather with a
minimum in instability, the strong upper ascent and strengthening
wind fields may allow for some storm organization.

In the wake of the noted shortwave trough, continued southwesterly
flow will establish over the region, with several embedded upper
disturbances expected to move through. At the surface, the forecast
area looks to remain anchored within the warm/moist sector. While
the details regarding convection are not resolvable in this period
for this particular pattern, it is reasonable to believe several
episodes of convection will be possible for portions of the area.
Organized storms may also be possible during this period, assuming
supportive shear/instability during the timing of convection. As for
temperatures, Wednesday may be slightly cooler due to convective
cloud debris and precipitation. Near to above normal readings are
expected to return Thursday into the weekend, with highs in the 70s
and 80s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1204 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

Main concern for aviators in the short term will be the strong and
gusty southerly winds expected thru the afternoon and into the
evening hours. Expect sustained southerly winds btn 15-20kts with
gusts to 25-30kts. Winds should subside around sunset dimishing to
around 10kts. Tonight a cold front will approach the area and
thunderstorms will move into the terminals btn 07Z-09Z and exit the
terminals btn 11Z-13Z. Cigs in thunderstorms will remain VFR around
5kft however vsbys may be reduced to 5SM in heavier showers. Showers
and thunderstorms may linger in the VC of the terminals thru the
morning hours tomorrow as they diminsh however, conds will remain VFR.




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