Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 050449
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1149 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 827 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

With loss of daytime heating the severe threat has begun to decrease
quite a bit. However with a line of storms extending all the way into
southwest KS tracking this direction, flooding remains a concern
particularly for areas just north of the Missouri River and near and
west of I-35. These areas may see repeated rounds of storms into the
early morning hours with another inch or two of rainfall. There will
be a little bit of propagation further south toward the I-70 corridor
and southern parts of the KC metro where some scattered storms will
develop, but the primary forcing from the low-level jet will keep
the heaviest rain focused near and just north of the Missouri River
overnight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

The main concern in the short term will be the potential for severe
weather generally along and north of a Olathe to Macon line late
this afternoon into tonight. This afternoon a stationary front along
an Ottumwa, Iowa to near St Joseph to Concordia, KS. North of the
front, across extreme northwest Missouri where showers and cloud
cover have plagued the area instability is low. Further south of the
front, temperatures are in the upper 70s to lower 80s and MLCAPE
values are ranging between 1500-2000J/Kg. However, despite modest
instability, forcing and shear are weak. There is still a chance for
severe weather with the aforementioned instability and steep low-mid
level lapse rates. The main mode of thunderstorm activity would be
multicell clusters of thunderstorms with the strongest of storms
capable of producing large hail and locally damaging winds. The
severe threat should be over by midnight as the instability
decreases.

As we go through the overnight hours, an upper level trough will
move from the southwestern CONUS into the Four Corners area. Height
rise are expected across the region out ahead of the upper trough
which will help force the stationary front north of the area into
southern Iowa. This will leave the local area in the warm sector and
dry on Tuesday and we appear to be capped. The only caveat would be
the potential of a weak shortwave that models are picking up on
which could produce enough forcing for a few thunderstorms during
the day. As such, have included slight chance POPs over portions of
the CWA if a thunderstorm or two does initiate. Expect highs in the
lower 80s.

Tuesday night, the aforementioned upper level trough will move fro
the Four Corners into the eastern Rockies. A lead shortwave ejecting
out from the upper wave will move into eastern Kansas. Convection
will develop south and west of the forecast area Tuesday night and
move northeastward into the area during the early morning hours on
Wednesday. Early morning convection and cloud cover on Wednesday
will most likely diminish the severe potential however thunderstorms
are expected to continue through the day. Expect highs in the 70s.

Thunderstorms potential will continue for much of the extended
period as the general pattern chances little over the region. The
main feature of interest will be an upper level trough that will be
digging down the West Coast on Thursday. This upper trough will move
slowly through the southwestern CONUS Friday and Saturday before
finally ejecting out into the eastern Rockies on Sunday. This will
leave the area in southwestern flow aloft through that period.
Several shortwaves will move through the area during that time frame
with several round of thunderstorms possible through the period. By
Sunday nigh/Monday the upper level trough continues to move into the
northern Plains forcing a cold front through the area earlier in the
day and things may dry out on Monday. Highs will generally be in the
70s through this period with highs falling into the 60s behind the
front on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

Band of showers and embedded thunderstorms is starting to lift back
to the north and this trend will continue over the next few hours
while precipitation starts to weaken. Other than some brief
storms/downpours for the KC terminals over the next 2 hours, the
threat for persistent and strong storms has generally ended for these
areas. Tuesday will be mostly dry with more showers or storms
approaching from the west overnight, most likely after 06Z.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Hawblitzel
DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Hawblitzel






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