Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 040853
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
453 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED
OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY. AN APPROACHING WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK...ALONG WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 453 AM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE IS ANCHORED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...WHILE A SFC COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL UPSTREAM OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES...MIDWEST...AND GREAT PLAINS STATES. OUR
REGION IS SITUATED UNDER UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...WITH HEIGHTS ABOUT
1-2 STD ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY MAY.

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE
REGION...WITH JUST SOME PASSING ALTOSTRATUS CLOUDS AROUND. WITH
HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY...SFC WINDS HAVE GONE CALM IN MOST
AREAS...WITH JUST A LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE REMAINING A FEW SPOTS.
AS A RESULT...MORNING TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S IN AREAS
WHERE THE WIND IS CALM TO THE UPPER 50S WHERE A LIGHT BREEZE
REMAINS.

WITH 850 HPA TEMPS OF 10-12 DEGREES C...AND GOOD MIXING TO NEARLY
700 HPA EXPECTED...TEMPS TODAY WILL BE VERY WARM. SUNNY SKIES THIS
MORNING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM UP VERY QUICKLY...AND MAX TEMPS
THIS AFTERNOON LOOK TO REACH THE MID 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS MIXING WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR S-SW WINDS TO GUST 20-30
MPH AT TIMES. THESE WINDS...ALONG WITH THE WARM TEMPS AND LOW RH
VALUES...ARE ALLOWING FOR SOME FIRE WX CONCERNS. SEE OUR FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR SOME IMPORTANT DETAILS ON THIS TOPIC.

SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY START TO INCREASE LATE
IN THE DAY AS THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT STARS TO APPROACH...BUT IT
LOOKS DRY THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...AND SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

AS A RESULT...SOME RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THERE WON/T BE A LOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY...AND SHOWERS WON/T BE OVERLY WIDESPREAD. MOST AREAS WILL
ONLY SEE A FEW PASSING LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING RAINFALL LOOKS NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CAPITAL REGION. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING...AND IT
WILL BE FAIRLY CLOUDY INTO THE START OF TUESDAY. TEMPS OVERNIGHT
WITH THE CLOUDS/SHOWERS WILL BE MILD WITH UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE REGION.

SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH SOUTHERN AREAS /CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY...NW CT/ MAY WIND UP STAYING CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY TUESDAY AND INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL STILL BE MILD...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS WARM
AS MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.

WITH THE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...THERE STILL MAY BE A
LINGERING SHOWER AND SOME CLOUDS FOR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS ON TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY ON
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER. TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 30S IN
THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WHERE
MORE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN.

HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AS THE COLD FRONT FINALLY DRIFTS
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. DESPITE BEING BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM...WITH
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY BEING IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. MIN TEMPS
ON WED NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S...ALTHOUGH A FEW 30S ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL
FEATURE A RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WITH A TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK SHIFTING
TO THE OVER THE PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND. WHILE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY OFF THE COAST.

DRY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER AS WE
HEAD THROUGH MOTHER`S DAY WEEKEND THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SOME SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND DEW POINTS RISE. THE REGION WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR
OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM SO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE AS THE BOUNDARY APPROACHES. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO WARM TO 12-15C OVER THE WEEKEND.

OVERALL LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES TO RUN 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA TODAY AS A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY APPROACHES FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...06Z/TUESDAY.
FEW TO SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
CLOSER TO THE AREA. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE AS WE
HEAD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. HAVE ADDED VICINITY SHOWERS TO KGFL
AND KALB TAFS FOR PRIOR TO 06Z/TUESDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
GREATER AFTER 06Z/TUESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION.

LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AS KALB OTHERWISE CALM WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE WIND WILL
INCREASE IN SPEED AND BECOME GUSTY AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES THEN
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN SOME DURING THE EVENING LOSING
THEIR GUSTINESS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC -SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED AT THE REQUEST OF THE NEW YORK
STATE DEC FOREST RANGERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND THE
MASSACHUSETTS DEPARTMENT OF CONSERVATION AND RECREATION.

ALTHOUGH RED FLAG WARNINGS HAVE NOT BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN VERMONT
AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT...LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE
POSSIBLE IN THOSE AREAS AS WELL.

SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL /GREATER THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH/ HAS NOT
OCCURRED IN WELL OVER A WEEK ACROSS THE REGION AND STATE OFFICIALS
HAVE NOTED THAT FOREST FUELS ARE RATHER DRY AT THIS TIME. RH
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO 25 TO 30 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND S-SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS
ARE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO
MID 80S. AS A RESULT...ANY FIRES MAY BECOME DIFFICULT TO CONTROL
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF THE
NORTHEAST IN AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK AREA.

RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...AND MOST AREAS WON/T SEE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL.
WEST WINDS WILL BE AT 5 T0 15 MPH.

WITH RAIN SHOWERS ENDING...AND SKIES STARTING TO CLEAR OUT...RH
VALUES ON TUESDAY WILL FALL TO 30 TO 50 PERCENT...WITH THE LOWEST
VALUES OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN VT. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER ON TUESDAY...WITH NW WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH
RH VALUES DROPPING TO NEAR 30 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

DRY WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE FOR AREAS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY
ONLY BE A TENTH OR TWO TENTH OF AN INCH. WITH VEGETATION STARTING
TO GREEN UP OVER THE AREA...THIS RAINFALL WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO
IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.

DRY WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT...RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL
EITHER HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RECEDE THROUGH THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS



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