Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 181633
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1130 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE CRITICAL FIRE  WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS
CENTRAL WISCONSIN TODAY...FOCUS THEN QUICKLY TURNS TO RAIN CHANCES
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

CURRENT SURFACE MAP THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO. MEANWHILE LOW
PRESSURE WAS LIFTING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WITH
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT LEADING TO BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE DRY
NORTHEAST FLOW INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING INTO THE LOWER 20S AND POSSIBLY THE
UPPER TEENS. THESE HUMIDITY VALUES COMBINED WITH EAST WINDS OF 14 TO
18 MPH WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25 MPH WILL CREATE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS
PLAGUED THE CENTRAL AND HIGH PLAINS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS OPENS AS
A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATER THIS WEEKEND. LOOK FOR SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM  OR TWO OF PUSH INTO AREAS
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TONIGHT THEN RAIN SHOWERS WILL
GRADUALLY SPREAD EASTWARD BY SUNDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS THE
TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS  ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST  IOWA AND FAR SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN. THE TROUGH WILL ACCOMPANY A PATTERN SHIFT ACROSS THE
REGION AS A LARGER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN
STORE FOR NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES BRINGING
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES COULD
BE COOL ENOUGH MONDAY NIGHT TO ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN AS THE UPPER LOW SPINS
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL THEN BE THE RULE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. THIS COOL PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

CIGS...
HIGH...MOSTLY THIN CLOUDS FILTERING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON...WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AND THICKEN THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. COULD
SEE SOME MVFR CIGS AT KRST SUN MORNING AS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
MOVES IN. KLSE WILL LIKELY HOLD VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CAN/T BE RULED OUT AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES.

WINDS...
EASTERLY FETCH TODAY INTO TONIGHT...GRADUALLY BECOMING SOUTHERLY ON
SUNDAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. MIXING WILL RESULT IN SOME +20
KT GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SUSTAINED HOLDING NEAR 10 KTS THROUGH
TONIGHT.

WX/VSBY...
-SHRA AND A FEW TS ONGOING OVER IOWA...BUT WILL HAVE TO BATTLE A LOT
OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ACROSS WI BEFORE IT CAN MAKE MUCH PROGRESS
EAST. MODEL TRENDS OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS HAVE BEEN TO SLOW THE
PCPN/S EASTWARD PUSH...AND THIS LOOKS VALID. GOING TO STICK WITH
VCSH AT KLSE FOR NOW...WITH CONFIDENCE SHAKY ON WHETHER THERE WILL
BE A PERIOD OF SHRA BEFORE THE FRONT GETS IN. HIGHER LIKELIHOOD FOR
KRST. A DROP INTO MVFR VSBYS WITH THE SHRA POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...TODAY
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO EASTERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN
TODAY PRODUCING DRY CONDITIONS WITH AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES FALLING INTO THE 19 TO 22 PERCENT RANGE. A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE EAST WINDS OF 14 TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS
APPROACHING 25 MPH AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS. RAIN CHANCES
RETURN LATE TONIGHT WITH RAIN LOOKING LIKELY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR WIZ034-042>044.

MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....WETENKAMP
LONG TERM......WETENKAMP
AVIATION.......RIECK
FIRE WEATHER...WETENKAMP



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