Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 041338
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
938 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC TODAY WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH ACROSS MICHIGAN. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH THE AREA AND STALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN LIFT BACK AS A
WARM FRONT ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHED EAST INTO WESTERN OHIO THIS MORNING BUT
SHOWER ACTIVITY WEAKENED WITH TIME AS IT MOVED INTO A DRIER AIR
MASS. LATEST OUTLOOK INDICATED PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OHIO ARE IN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR STORMS AS THEY DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT.
LATEST SOUNDINGS UPSTREAM INDICATE MAX TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 75
DEGREES AND CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS 74. SO...I WOULD EXPECT BEST
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WILL OCCUR AT PEAK HEATING TIME
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS AS THE FRONT SINKS SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN OHIO THIS EVENING. THE PUSH OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR GETS AS
FAR SOUTH AS LAKE ERIE...WITH THE INSTABILITY AXIS WEAKENING OVERHEAD.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A DECREASING TREND TO THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TONIGHT. THE NEXT ROUND OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE ALONG THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON TUESDAY AND SHOULD SEE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN. LOWERED
HIGHS ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE NORTH AS WINDS DEVELOP OFF LAKE ERIE
AND SUFFICIENT CLOUD COVER HAS A LIMITING EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES.
A FEW OF THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES MAY STILL REACH THE MID 70S.

THE RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD ALOFT FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WHICH SHOULD BRING AN END TO CONVECTION. WILL HOLD ONTO THE LOW
20-30 PERCENT POPS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RESIDE AT THAT TIME. BY THURSDAY WE
RETURN TO HAVING A DRY FORECAST AS THE CAP STRENGTHENS OVERHEAD. THE
WARM FRONT LIFTS BACK EARLY THURSDAY WHICH SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE
MID 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE
REGION ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...STRONG HEATING AND THE POTENTIAL OF SOME CONVERGENCE
ALONG A LAKE BREEZE AND OVER THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS WE WILL NEED TO
MENTION SOME THUNDER IN THE GRIDS. SINCE HEIGHTS ALOFT ARE RATHER
HIGH IT WILL LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF ANY OF THE THUNDER. BY SATURDAY A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO INCREASE THUNDER CHANCES ACROSS THE WEST. A LAKE BOUNDARY
MAY ALSO IGNITE A FEW STORMS ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA. THERE SHOULD
BE A LULL IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT BUT
CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT PASSES.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST.

IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 80. COOLER NEAR THE
LAKESHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
MOVE TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BEEN DECREASING IN COVERAGE AS THEY PULLED AWAY FROM THE COLD FRONT
THIS MORNING. THE FEW SHOWERS THAT REMAIN ALONG THE WEAKENING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LOOK AS IF THEY WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING NW
OHIO. WILL REMOVE THEIR MENTION FROM THE TOLEDO AREA. OTHERWISE
SOME CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. THE WEAKENING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND THE COLD FRONT WILL
PROVIDE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO GENERATE NEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
TO MID AFTERNOON. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN DRIFT TO THE EAST
AND SOUTHEAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. STILL UNCERTAINTY ON WHEN
THE CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AND HAVE A 6 HOUR WINDOW OF TIME WHEN
THE THUNDER MAY OCCUR (VCTS). HOWEVER WE DID ATTEMPT TO PROVIDE A
BEST 2 HOUR WINDOW FOR CONVECTION FOR EACH LOCATION. THIS 2 HOUR
WINDOW IS WHERE WE PLACED THE IFR CONDITIONS.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING. THESE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD
BE IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE LARGER WAVES
OF 2 TO 3 FEET ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS. WINDS AND WAVES WILL DECREASE
TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS OVER NORTHERN OR CENTRAL OHIO. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL PRODUCE NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
THROUGH THURSDAY. MOST LOCATIONS WILL KEEP WIND SPEEDS IN THE 5 TO
10 KNOT RANGE BUT SOME LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS...MAYBE UP TO 15
KNOTS...ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS WILL LIKELY OCCUR TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MULLEN





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