Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 031924
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
324 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL DRIFT EAST AND
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. A DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HEATING HAS CAUSED THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME FAIR WEATHER CU AND
ALTO-CU. OTHERWISE ITS A FINE LATE SPRING DAY WITH TEMPS
GENERALLY IN THE 70S.

WE SHOULD LOSE THE CLOUDS WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. LOWS WILL DROP
BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
MONDAY WILL FEATURE MORNING SUNSHINE FOLLOWED BY MORE DIURNALLY
ENHANCED AFTERNOON CU. ANY CHC FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL
BE ACROSS THE NW MOUNTAINS AND LIMITED TO LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SAGS SE FROM THE GLAKES.

HIGHS MONDAY WILL RISE INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING EAST FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES WILL HELP PUSH A BACKDOOR-STYLE SFC COLD FRONT
INTO CENTRAL PA BY EARLY TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL WAVER NEAR THE
MASON-DIXON LINE TUE-WED AND SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CLOUDS AND
PRECIP...AS IMPULSES OF ENERGY RIPPLE THROUGH ALOFT ON THE NRN
PERIPHERY OF BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE MID-SOUTH. KEPT MENTION OF
SCHC TSTMS TUE AFTN ACROSS THE SRN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA PER SPC DY3
OUTLOOK. MODELS ARE COMING INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT
CONCERNING QPF PLACEMENT AND AMTS AND THUS HAVE INCREASED POPS
ANOTHER 5-10PCT TO 50-60 PCT RANGE.

THE PATTERN FROM THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF THE WEEK CONTINUES
TO LOOK RATHER STAGNANT WITH MEAN TROUGHING SLOWLY PROGRESSING
EAST FROM THE WESTERN U.S. INTO THE PLAINS...WITH PRECIPITATION
FOCUSING NEAR THE FRONT-SIDE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
STATES AND NEWD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHEAST UPPER RIDGE
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE NRN MID
ATLC STATES APPEAR TO BE ON THE EDGE OF THE FAVORED PCPN ZONE. IN
GENERAL THE PCPN PATTERN SHOULD BE SUMMER-LIKE WITH WEAK FORCING
UNDER HIGH HEIGHTS ALOFT...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MSTR AND ISOLD-SCT
DIURNAL/TERRAIN-DRIVEN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR
POSSIBLE COOLER MARITIME FLOW INFLUENCE THAT COULD IMPACT THE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMP FCST ESPECIALLY WITH POSSIBLE SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. A TASTE OF FINE
SPRING WEATHER.

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL PA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY
SLOW AND CREATE LOW CIGS/SHOWERS INTO WED. THE FRONT MAY PUSH TO
THE SOUTH ON THURS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCAL REDUCED CONDITIONS.

WED...CONTINUED SHOWERS AND AREAS OF MVFR/IFR.

THU-FRI...NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SFC DEWPOINTS AND CORRESPONDING RH VALUES TRENDED LOWER THAN FCST
THIS AFTERNOON WITH MANY SITES DROPPING BELOW 30 PERCENT. 10-HR
FINE FUELS ARE BELOW THE CRITICAL 10 PERCENT LEVEL PER COORDINATION
WITH BOF (VIA NWS PHI). LIGHT WINDS KEPT FIRE DANGER IN THE
MODERATE CATEGORY TODAY...BUT THAT MAY CHANGE FOR MONDAY WITH AN
UPTICK IN WINDS ANTICIPATED...AND LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN AFTN RH
OR FUELS. FIRE WEATHER PARTNERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
FCSTS WITH AT LEAST MARGINALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS LOOKING MORE
LIKELY FOR MONDAY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE
FIRE WEATHER...STEINBUGL



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