Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 270535
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1235 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

AT 00Z MONDAY A 500MB LOW WAS LOCATED OVER NEW MEXICO WITH SEVERAL
SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES EVIDENT FROM SATELLITE LOOP
ROTATING AROUND THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. NORTHEAST OF THIS UPPER
LOW A 700MB DEFORMATION ZONE EXTENDED FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO TO
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. SCATTERED CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
700MB DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS BASE ON 05Z REGIONAL
RADAR LOOP. ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MOISTURE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT WAS EVIDENT AT THE 850MB
LEVEL ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY MONDAY MORNING WHILE
CLOSING OFF THEN SLOWING DOWN. MOISTURE THAT WAS INITIALLY SHUNTED
TO THE GULF COAST HAS PROGRESSED NORTHWESTWARD AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM. THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS
OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS MAY CUT OFF THE LOW
LEVEL MOIST INFLOW INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS AS THE SYSTEM PASSES TO
THE SOUTH. RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WERE STILL
MAINTAINED IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY ALONG THE OKLAHOMA STATE LINE,
WITH LESSER CHANCES FARTHER NORTH. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE
RAIN MAY STAY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY TONIGHT GIVEN THE CLOUD
COVER, WITH A DROP OF ONLY A FEW DEGREES. IF THE RAIN SHIELD STAYS
IN OKLAHOMA ON MONDAY THEN TEMPERATURES COULD EASILY RISE INTO THE
LOWER 60S FROM DODGE CITY NORTHWARD IF THE SUN MAKES AN
APPEARANCE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, THE UPPER LOW AND ATTENDANT RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING EAST AND SOUTH OF WESTERN KANSAS. WILL
MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE FOR LINGERING SHOWERS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF
DODGE CITY ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS MODEL TRENDS
CONTINUE WITH LESSER CHANCES OVER WESTERN KANSAS. THE GFS IS THE
FARTHEST NORTH WITH PRECIP, WHILE THE OTHER MODELS HAVE IT MORE
SOUTH. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

FOR THE PERIOD OF WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY, A DRY PERIOD IS FORECAST AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS IN CONTROL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 40S WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY MORNING, THEN WARM TO AROUND
50 ON FRIDAY MORNING. DAYTIME HIGHS WARM FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, AND THE UPPER 70S ON FRIDAY.

FOR THE NEXT WEEKEND PERIOD, INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ARE IN THE FORECAST INTO SUNDAY AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH, AS GULF
MOISTURE RETURNS. LOWS WILL BE MILD AN IN THE 50S, WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS AROUND 80.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

00Z NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS, HRRR AND RAP ALL APPEAR TO BE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH IFR CEILINGS AT GCK GRADUALLY IMPROVING INTO THE
MVFR CATEGORY BY 09Z. LOW MVFR CEILINGS AT DDC WILL ALSO BE
IMPROVING INTO THE 2000 TO 3000FT AGL RANGE BY 12Z MONDAY AS
ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE AND DRIER AIR DEVELOPS IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
FOG POTENTIAL WILL ALSO ON THE DECREASE BUT PATCHY OF FOG MAY
STILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT TIMES AROUND DAYBREAK TO 2-4 MILES.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT
RANGE BY 12Z MONDAY AND THEN CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO AROUND
20 KNOTS BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME THE BETTER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL IN THE DDC AND GCK AREAS BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z MONDAY. AFTER 12Z MONDAY THE BETTER FORCING WILL SHIFT
SOUTH OF THESE TERMINALS. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE
DDC AREA WHERE A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE DAY.
CEILINGS AT ALL THREE TAF SITES WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING THE
DAY. DDC AND GCK IS EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE VFR CATEGORY
BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  38  68  42  71 /  30  10  10   0
GCK  35  68  41  72 /  10  10  10   0
EHA  37  65  40  72 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  39  67  41  72 /  40  10  10   0
HYS  40  68  42  72 /  10  10  10   0
P28  42  66  43  72 /  50  10  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...BURGERT



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