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000 FXUS63 KEAX 232145 AFDEAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 345 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009 .DISCUSSION... SFC LOW WAS DEVELOPING BTWN P28 AND GBD AHEAD OF A STG UPR TROUGH TRACKING ESE INTO SRN COLO. MODELS SIMILAR IN TRACKING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACR NRN MO WITH A STG PVU MAX PIVOTING ACR THE CWA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. DESPITE LIMITED MOISTURE...STG FORCING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE TRACK OF THE UPR LOW...WILL PROVIDE FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM GIVEN STEEPENING MID LVL LAPSE RATES. HAVE SOME CONCERN ABOUT HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NRN GRIDS...BUT GIVEN THE RATHER FAST MOVEMENT...DO NOT BELIEVE THE AMOUNTS WILL EXCEED HEADWATER GUIDANCE. MODELS SUGGEST THICKNESSES DROP TO AROUND 540 DM NR THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPR LOW. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE DECREASE IN THICKNESS IS DUE TO COOLING ALOFT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE FREEZING LEVEL WILL ONLY DROP TO AROUND 5000 FEET. THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE CWA QUICKLY TUES AFTN AS ANOTHER ALBERTA CLIPPER DROPS SE TOWARD THE UPPER MISS VALLEY. GIVEN THE COOLING ALOFT...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE NERN GRIDS ON WED. OTHERWISE...COOLING BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON TUESDAY IS MINIMAL WITH GUIDANCE LOOKING IN THE BALLPARK. DB MEDIUM RANGE (THU-MON)... IN THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE ONGOING FCST AS MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS BEING SAID...INTENSITY OF NORTH TO SOUTH MOVING S/W TROUGH CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM RUN TO RUN AND SHOULD BRING A NICE BATCH OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION FOR THANKSGIVING. 850 MB TEMPS BETWEEN -4 AND -6 WILL ADVECT SOUTH THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS...WITH MORE FAVORABLE GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL REDEVELOPMENT OF COLD AIR STRATO-CU FIELD IN THE AFTN. THIS BEING SAID...TEMPS WILL RUN BLO NORMAL WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE UPR 30S IN THE NE...WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY WARMER READINGS IN THE LOW 40S SW. OUR FIRST TRUE HARD FREEZE MAY ARRIVE THU NIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR AND SFC RIDGING SETTLES IN TO OUR WEST. TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 20S WILL BE COMMON BY FRI MORNING PROVIDING THE FINISHING BLOWS TO THE PROLONGED GROWING SEASON. A WARMUP WILL BE IN STORE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS PRONOUNCED MID-LVL RIDGING AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER PAC NW UPR TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. 850MB TEMPS RISE BACK INTO FAVORABLE POSITIONS TO PRODUCE UPR 40S TO LOW 50S FRIDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS A FAST MOVING SFC FRONT APPROACHES. THIS SFC FRONT IS BEING DRIVING BY A DEVELOPING UPR TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES ON SAT. MODELS REMAIN IN SOME DISAGREEMENT REGARDING THIS UPR TROUGH...HOWEVER OF MORE CERTAINTY IS THE POOR QUALITY OF MOISTURE THAT IS AVAILABLE AS THE ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. THE N-S MOVING UPR TROUGH ON THU WILL DRIVE LOW-LVL MOISTURE DEEP INTO THE GOM WITH THE SFC FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. GIVEN THE SPEED AT WHICH THE NEXT UPR TROUGH WILL TRY TO FILL IN THE WESTERN CONUS...ALONG WITH ITS POSITIVE TILT DISPOSITION AND EXPECTED PHASING BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS...THE MOST FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR QUALITY MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE OVER SE MO AND INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. THUS...FOR THE MOST PART WILL KEEP A DRY FCST FOR THIS WEEKEND WITH COOLER TEMPS SETTLING BACK IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. DUX && .AVIATION... FOR THE 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTN WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING TONIGHT. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST INTO MISSOURI TONIGHT AND LIKELY PRODUCE RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. MOISTURE IS RATHER LIMITED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT STG FORCING SHOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF RAIN. THE SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS NW MO AROUND SUNRISE. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL INITIALLY BE IN THE MVFR RANGE AHEAD OF THE LOW AND FRONT...BUT ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...BETTER SATURATION WILL OCCUR AS TEMPS COOL. AS A RESULT...IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR BEGINNING A COUPLE OF HOURS AFT SUNRISE. DB && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$
