National Weather Service Text Product Display

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 100930
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
330 AM CST WED FEB 10 2010

.DISCUSSION...

ST/SC HAS BEEN PERSISTENT OVERNIGHT BUT THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD BEGIN
TO ERODE FM THE NORTH AND WEST TODAY AS THE SFC RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS
SHIFTS EAST INTO MISSOURI. DESPITE THE INCREASING SUNSHINE...SNOW
COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN CHECK TODAY...SIMILAR TO GUIDANCE.

MOISTURE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING SOUTH OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL
STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE CWFA. MAIN CONCERN IS A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES
OFF THE PAC NW COAST AND OVER SWRN CANADA. DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...UPPER RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PAC NW...ALLOWING FOR THE
WAVES TO DIVE SE INTO THE PLAINS. AS A RESULT...SRLY WINDS WILL
RETURN AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS.
VEERING WINDS ABOVE THE SFC WILL ADVECT THE SC LAYER WELL TO SW INTO
THE CWA LATE TNGT AND THURSDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT WITHIN THIS LAYER IS
WEAK...THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION.

WEAK QG FORCING AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK
UPPER TROUGH MAY PRODUCE SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. BEST FORCING IS OVER THE ERN GRIDS AND WILL NUDGE
POPS UP SLIGHTLY.

DB

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...UPSTREAM STRATUS DECK OVER SOUTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL IA HAS INCREASED SINCE 04Z. LATEST GUIDANCE NOT PARTICULARLY
USEFUL AS THEY TEND TO DISSIPATE THIS CLOUD COVER BY 09Z. 00Z GFS
COMES CLOSEST WHILE HOURLY LAMP DATA USING A MIX OF CURRENT
OBS/TRENDS/CLIMATOLOGY SUGGEST HOLDING ONTO CLOUDS WELL INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS STILL WEST OF THE
TERMINALS AND CYCLONIC FLOW STILL DOMINATING THE REGION BELIEVE
THESE MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER UNTIL AT LEAST SUNRISE...AND
POSSIBLY INTO MID MORNING BEFORE SUFFICIENT SINKING MOTION FINALLY
SHIFTS EASTWARD.

AIR TEMPERATURES WITHIN THIS STRATUS DECK ARE AROUND -10C WHICH IS
SUFFICIENTLY COLD TO SUPPORT ICE CRYSTALS...AND THUS CARRIES THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLURRIES FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. SHOULD FINALLY SEE AN
END TO THE MVFR CLOUDS BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN VFR FOR
THE REST OF THE FORECAST.

MJ


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office