Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 031010
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
410 AM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE LEAVES THE AREA TODAY...A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE BORDERLAND. ONCE AGAIN MOST OF THE RAIN WILL NOT
REACH THE GROUND AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS NEAR THE SHOWERS WILL BE
THE MAIN FEATURE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A LITTLE MORE
WIDESPREAD ON MONDAY...WITH LITTLE RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS
AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE AREA. ON TUESDAY DRIER AIR WILL
BEGIN MOVING IN BEHIND THE LOW WITH DRY AND BREEZY WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK SHORT WAVE BROUGHT HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TO MORE OF THE AREA THAN EXPECTED...WITH STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS THE
MAIN IMPACT SATURDAY EVENING. THERE MAY NOT BE QUITE AS MUCH
ACTIVITY LATER TODAY AS IMPULSE DEPARTS...WITH THE MOUNTAINS AND
FAR EAST HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE ACTION. THEN ON
MONDAY DYNAMICS INCREASE THOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS MODEST AS UPPER
LOW APPROACHES. THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE WITH MOUNTAINS AND EAST OF RIO GRANDE
HAVING THE BEST CHANCE. NOT MUCH RAIN EXPECTED...JUST A BUNCH OF
WIND BAGS THOUGH THE FURTHER EAST YOU GO THE MORE LIKELY YOU`LL
SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL OF ANY BENEFIT. IN FACT...IF YOU`RE
TRAVELING EAST OF OUR AREA MONDAY INTO THE PLAINS IT WILL BE
REALLY BUSY WITH ACTIVE WEATHER. MEANWHILE BOTH DAYS HERE WILL BE
A FEW DEGREES COOLER YET STILL A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.

ON TUESDAY THE LOW OPENS UP AND MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NEW
MEXICO. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIMITED TO NORTH OF A SILVER
CITY TO ALAMOGORDO LINE AS DRIER AIR INVADES THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST DAY WITH TEMPS NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. DRY AND BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE
THE BORDERLAND MIDWEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH THE DRYLINE
REMAINING EAST OF THE CWA.

JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE
A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH
BACKS THE FLOW TO MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS ALLOWS THE
DRYLINE TO SLIP BACK FURTHER WEST. AN IMPULSE IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW OVER POSSIBLE MOIST SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WOULD
RESULT IN A CLASSIC MAY SEVERE WEATHER PATTERN FOR EAST OF THE RIO
GRANDE. GETTING WAY AHEAD OF OURSELVES HERE...BUT IT IS MAY AFTER
ALL...WHICH HISTORICALLY IS THE TOP HAIL MONTH FOR EL PASO.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 03/12Z-04/12Z...
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THEN AFTR 20Z
WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY. AFT 18Z ISOLD HIGH BASE -TSRA ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR THE GILA WILDERNESS...NM BOOT HEEL AND
SACRAMENTO MTNS. LOW VISIBILITIES AND STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR STORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
BEGINNING TODAY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND
THEN MOVES MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
WHICH WILL INCREASE CHANCES OF WETTING RAIN ACROSS ALL FIRE
WEATHER ZONES. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS...HIGHER
HUMIDITY VALUES AND COOLER HIGH TEMPS TO THE AREA. LATE TUESDAY
THE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION AND DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW TAKES OVER. THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN DRY WITH BREEZY
TO WINDY AFTERNOONS AND NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES.

TODAY MIN RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO LOW TEENS IN THE
LOWLANDS. IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS MIN RH VALUES WILL
CLIMB INTO THE 20S. MIN RH VALUES WILL STEADILY INCREASE TOMORROW
AND MONDAY. VENT RATES TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL BE VERY GOOD TO
EXCELLENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 88  64  86  62  81 /   0  10  10  20   0
SIERRA BLANCA           85  58  83  55  78 /   0  20  20  30  20
LAS CRUCES              85  54  83  52  77 /   0  10  20  20   0
ALAMOGORDO              86  57  83  55  77 /   0  10  20  30  20
CLOUDCROFT              65  45  62  42  56 /  20  20  30  40  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   83  54  81  51  75 /   0  10  20  20  20
SILVER CITY             77  49  74  44  67 /  20  10  20  30  20
DEMING                  85  52  83  49  77 /   0  10  10  20   0
LORDSBURG               83  51  81  47  76 /   0  10  10  20  10
WEST EL PASO METRO      87  63  85  61  80 /   0  10  10  20   0
DELL CITY               89  57  85  56  80 /  10  20  30  30  20
FORT HANCOCK            90  60  87  58  82 /   0  20  20  30   0
LOMA LINDA              82  59  80  57  74 /   0  10  20  30   0
FABENS                  88  59  86  57  81 /   0  10  10  20   0
SANTA TERESA            86  58  85  56  79 /   0  10  10  20   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          85  61  82  59  77 /   0  10  20  20   0
JORNADA RANGE           85  53  83  51  77 /   0  10  20  20  10
HATCH                   86  54  83  51  78 /   0  10  20  20  10
COLUMBUS                84  56  81  55  77 /   0  10  10  20   0
OROGRANDE               85  60  84  58  78 /   0  10  20  30   0
MAYHILL                 73  51  71  48  66 /  20  20  30  40  20
MESCALERO               74  49  71  45  65 /  20  20  30  40  20
TIMBERON                73  50  70  47  64 /  20  20  30  40  20
WINSTON                 76  46  72  43  68 /  20  20  30  30  30
HILLSBORO               81  51  79  47  74 /   0  10  20  20  20
SPACEPORT               85  51  82  49  77 /   0  10  20  20  20
LAKE ROBERTS            75  47  73  43  66 /  20  10  30  30  20
HURLEY                  79  48  75  44  70 /   0  10  20  20  10
CLIFF                   82  49  80  44  74 /   0  10  20  20  20
MULE CREEK              79  43  77  38  70 /   0  10  20  20  20
FAYWOOD                 80  50  76  46  71 /   0   0  20  20  10
ANIMAS                  83  52  80  49  77 /   0  10  10  20   0
HACHITA                 83  50  81  48  77 /   0  10  10  20   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          82  50  80  47  76 /   0  10  10  10   0
CLOVERDALE              79  49  77  46  72 /   0  10  10  10   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

01 FAUSETT





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