Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 211117
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
717 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

LATEST REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MADE
ITS WAY THROUGH ALL OF NORTH GEORGIA AND NOW RESIDES ROUGHLY SOUTH
OF AN AHN TO MCN LINE. COOLER AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS NOTED
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MID 40S DEWPOINTS AND TEMPS IN THE MID 50S.
STILL IN THE MOIST WARM AIRMASS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA BUT NO ADDITIONAL DYNAMICS TO WORK WITH SO LOCAL
RADAR REMAINS PRECIP FREE.

AFTER A VERY ACTIVE WEEK LONG PERIOD FOR THE LOCAL AREA...FINALLY
IN STORE FOR A MUCH NEEDED BREAK. SUPERB CONDITIONS FOR TODAY WITH
HIGHS CLOSE TO AVERAGE BUT LIKELY FEELING SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO
THE DRIER CONDITIONS AND ELEVATED WINDS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
JUST BASED ON PAST FEW FRONTAL PASSAGES...WENT A COUPLE DEGREES
ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR TODAYS HIGHS.

THIS FINE WEATHER WILL SPILL OVER INTO THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY
AS WELL WITH INCREASING CLOUDS BUT GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND MODERATING TEMPS INTO THE MID AND UPPER
70S. A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING ALONG
WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN MEAN WNW FLOW. MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED
WITH THIS FEATURE INITIALLY BUT ENOUGH LIFT AND SURFACE
CONVERGENCE TO WARRANT CHANCE POPS FOR THE FAR NORTHERN TIER AS WE
CLOSE OUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

DEESE

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED...BUT NOWHERE
NEAR AS WET AS THE PAST WEEK. BEST CHANCES FOR MEANINGFUL
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY AND AGAIN OVER THE
WEEKEND...HOWEVER UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN LOOKS ACTIVE ENOUGH FOR AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE INITIAL SYSTEM WITH
WEAK SHORT WAVES TRAVERSING THE REGION IN A GENERAL WEST TO NORTHWEST
UPPER FLOW PATTERN AND A WEAK COLD FRONT SINKING THROUGH THE STATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. FOR THE BALANCE OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR CONCERNING THE
OVERALL UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN...SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES REMAIN
CONCERNING THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT...STRENGTH AND TIMING.
STILL...BOTH WOULD INDICATE GOOD CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MOVING IN
AS EARLY AS SATURDAY. GFS PUSHES THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT
THROUGH QUICKLY...ENDING THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES BY SUNDAY...WHILE
THE ECMWF REMAINS SLOWER LINGERING BETTER RAIN CHANCES INTO SUNDAY.

WITH THE CONTINUING DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS I HAVE ONCE
AGAIN GONE WITH A GENERAL BLEND FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST GRIDS.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THIS TAF CYCLE. JUST AN INCREASE IN
HIGH CLOUDS LATE IN THE PERIOD ALONG WITH SOME LOW END WIND GUSTS
ANTICIPATED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          72  48  76  57 /   0   0  10  30
ATLANTA         71  52  75  56 /   0   0  10  30
BLAIRSVILLE     66  44  69  50 /   0   0  30  40
CARTERSVILLE    70  47  74  54 /   0   0  20  40
COLUMBUS        76  53  78  59 /   0   0   5  20
GAINESVILLE     69  50  73  54 /   0   0  20  40
MACON           75  50  78  58 /   0   5   5  20
ROME            70  46  75  53 /   0   0  30  40
PEACHTREE CITY  71  47  76  56 /   0   5  10  30
VIDALIA         77  56  80  61 /   0   0   5  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...DEESE



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