Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 271536
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1036 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
A LARGE UPPER LOW IS CENTERED WEST OF LUBBOCK LATE THIS
MORNING...WITH A PRONOUNCED SURFACE CONVERGENCE LINE EXTENDING
FROM NEAR WICHITA FALLS SOUTHWARD TO LAMPASAS. A NICE FETCH OF
COOL...STABLE EASTERLY WINDS PERSISTS EAST OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE
AND NORTH OF I-20...WITH SOMEWHAT WARMER...AND WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR
EXTENDING ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR FROM DFW TO TEMPLE. SHORT-TERM
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVOLVE EAST
OF THE CONVERGENCE LINE IN A ZONE OF BETTER ISENTROPIC ASCENT
ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 FROM EARLY AFTERNOON ONWARD. AM INCLINED TO
KEEP THE HIGHER POPS GOING FOR THESE EASTERN (AND PARTICULARLY
NORTHEAST COUNTIES) FOR THE AFTERNOON...PERSISTING INTO THE
EVENING.

GIVEN THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY...NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON...DESPITE THE
PRESENCE OF GOOD SHEAR. HOWEVER...WE DO THINK THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY EAST OF I-35 AND SOUTH OF I-20 WHERE THE
BETTER FORCING FOR ASCENT AND INSTABILITY WILL BE REALIZED LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT...THOUGH BRIEF
WEAK TORNADOES DO NOT REMAIN COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION GIVEN
THE SUBSTANTIAL SHEAR.

WILL SEND UPDATED GRIDS/PRODUCTS SHORTLY...TOUCHING UP FOR
TEMPS...CLOUDCOVER AND POPS.

BRADSHAW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 652 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015/
MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS TAF PACKAGE IS POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND THE EVOLUTION OF
CEILINGS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS
MORNING ALONG WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING. IN
ADDITION...THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SINK
SOUTHWARD WITH WINDS SLOWLY TURNING MORE NORTHEASTERLY. STEEP
LAPSE RATES REMAIN IN PLACE AND WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE MAY STILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR THE DEVELOP OF ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALREADY SOME
EVIDENCE OF THIS OCCURRING... WITH DEVELOPING RADAR ECHOES
SOUTHEAST OF WAXAHACHIE. THIS IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF STRONGER
UPPER FORCING...BUT AREAS FURTHER WEST...INCLUDING ALL TAF
SITES...STILL CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM. WITH ONLY SPARSE COVERAGE EXPECTED HAVE ONLY
INCLUDED VCTS FOR A BRIEF TIME EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH BOOKEND
PERIODS OF -RA.

THE SECOND CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST IS THE EVOLUTION OF CLOUD
CEILINGS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MVFR CIGS ARE TRYING TO EXPAND
WESTWARD TOWARDS THE METROPLEX AS OF 12Z...FOLLOWED BY IFR CIGS
LATER TODAY. THE METROPLEX TAF SITES WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE CIGS
UNDER 010 FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH SOME LIFR CIGS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...ESPECIALLY FOR MONDAY NIGHT.

STALLEY


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015/
AFTER A VERY ACTIVE NIGHT WITH MULTIPLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...THE MAJORITY OF STORMS HAD MOVED EAST OF
THE CWA AT 330 AM. THEREFORE...WE WILL CANCEL THE TORNADO WATCH
WITH THE MORNING PACKAGE ISSUANCE.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A
POWERFUL UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND A
QUASISTATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. MORNING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES OF
NORTH TEXAS AS WELL AS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES DUE TO THE
PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW. THE SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL WILL BE
LOW OVERALL SINCE THE LOW LEVELS OVER THE ATMOSPHERE HAVE BEEN
THROUGHLY WORKED OVER. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL TO
RECOVER THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES
WHICH SHOULD REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR. IF THESE STORMS CAN
BECOME ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THEY WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL TO
BECOME SEVERE WITH MORE THAN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. THE
FULL RANGE OF SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

NORTH OF THE FRONT...THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE A FLASH FLOOD
THREAT...ESPECIALLY IN THOSE AREAS THAT SAW APPRECIABLE RAINFALL
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING STORMS WILL BE
EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS OKLAHOMA. THEREFORE...HAVE
OPTED NOT TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ANY NORTH TEXAS
COUNTIES.

THE UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY START TO PULL EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA
TONIGHT AND ALLOW THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH ALL OF NORTH
TEXAS. THIS WILL USHER IN DRIER AIR AND DECREASING RAIN CHANCES IN
ALL AREAS BUT THE NORTHEAST ZONES. SINCE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL BE HIGH...SOME ISOLATED THUNDER WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.

SOME WRAP AROUND SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY BUT ALL RAIN
CHANCES WILL SHOULD END BY TUESDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW
FINALLY MOVES TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY AND
BUILD SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP NORTH TEXAS
IN DRY NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND NEAR
SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  69  55  66  50  74 /  60  60  30   5   0
WACO, TX              76  52  64  46  75 /  60  40  20   0   0
PARIS, TX             65  50  60  44  69 /  80  70  50   5   0
DENTON, TX            66  51  64  46  73 /  60  60  30   5   0
MCKINNEY, TX          67  53  63  48  73 /  70  70  40   5   0
DALLAS, TX            71  54  64  49  74 /  60  60  30   5   0
TERRELL, TX           68  55  62  48  73 /  60  70  40   5   0
CORSICANA, TX         71  56  63  47  72 /  60  60  30   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            79  56  66  48  72 /  50  40  20   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     71  52  63  45  73 /  60  40  30   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

/66



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