Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 051850
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1250 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CO/WY BORDER BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY THEN INTO SOUTH DAKOTA BY 00Z THURSDAY.

FIRST BATCH OF MOISTURE/RAINFALL SPREADING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND BY THE END OF THE DAY WE MAY SEE A TAPERING
OFF OF AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE SOME DRIER AIR STARTS
TO MOVE IN. THIS TREND CONTINUES OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY SOME WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AND PRECIP MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 IN FAR
EASTERN COLORADO WITH LOW TO UPPER 50S EAST OF THE STATE LINE.
HIGHS TOMORROW IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO
WITH LOW TO MID 70S EAST OF THE BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WITH A CLOSED LOW WILL AFFECT THE TRI STATE
AREA TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD FRIDAY...WHICH WILL
BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN FORECASTS ALL INDICATE THE SLOW MOVING TROUGH
WILL AFFECT THE REGION FOR THE DURATION OF THE COMING WEEKEND.  THE
TROUGH TAKES A NEGATIVE TILT SATURDAY IN THE GFS/ECMWF
FORECASTS...WHICH WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND INCREASE CAPE
VALUES.  A STRONGER JET MAY ALSO BE IN THE AREA TO HELP DESTABILIZE
THE ENVIRONMENT...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS AS TO THE ACTUAL
STRENGTH.  GFS FORECAST HAS AN UPPER LEVEL JET APPROACHING 80KTS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH IS PLENTY STRONG TO GIVE 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES APPROACHING 50 KTS.  LOWER LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ALSO HAVE
GOOD CURVATURE WITH 0-3 KM HELICITY APPROACHING CRITICAL VALUES FOR
TORNADOES. HOWEVER...ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS ARE NOT AS ENTHUSIASTIC
AND HAVE BETTER JET LOCATED TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA.
THEREFORE...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLE BUT NOT
DEFINITE AT THIS POINT.

HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR MANY LOCATIONS DUE TO VERY
SATURATED MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CAPE IN THE PROFILE TO CONTINUE TO
DRIVE CONVECTION INTO THE EVENING. ALONG AN ADVANCING WARM
FRONT...AN MCS IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP AND BE PERSISTENT WITH THE
ENHANCEMENT OF THE LOWER NOCTURNAL JET. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
TAPER OFF TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
LINGERING IN THE AREA...BUT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL PASS OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS MONDAY AND WILL EFFECTIVELY END THE HIGHER
PRECIPITATION THREAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1030 AM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

KGLD...IFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 16Z
THEN MVFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A
LOW PRESSURE AREA SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. A DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING
THROUGH MID MORNING AS SOME DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FIRST
WAVE OF PRECIP. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD SOME WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE/PRECIP MOVES IN FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST SLIGHTLY
INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN AGAIN. FOR PERIODS
WHERE NO PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING MIST/FOG LIKELY WITH REDUCED
VISIBILITIES. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTH 12-15KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

KMCK...IFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 20Z
IN STRATUS/FOG WITH SHOWERS OVER OR NEAR THE TERMINAL. CIGS MAY
BRIEFLY RISE TO MVFR FROM 21Z-23Z BEFORE FALLING TO IFR/VLIFR FOR
THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS WILL ROTATE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST...SIMILAR TO KGLD DISCUSSION. WINDS ALSO
SIMILAR TO THOSE MENTIONED IN KGLD DISCUSSION.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...99



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