Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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FXUS61 KGYX 250204
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1004 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER THE THE MAINE AND NEW BRUNSWICK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT WILL PRODUCE COOL
AND UNSETTLED WEATHER. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
TUESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER LOW
MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. COOL AND BRISK
NIGHT OUT THERE WITH A LOT OF CLOUDS. SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS IS STILL A STRONG LIKELIHOOD.

638 PM UPDATE...HAVE INCREASED POPS A LITTLE BIT ACROSS THE MAINE
FOOTHILLS AND THE WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS FOR THIS EVENING AS
LIGHT SNOW /SOME LIGHT RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS/ CONTINUES TO FALL
WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. OTHERWISE...VARIABLE CLOUDS FOR THE REST
OF THE REGION. LATER ON TONIGHT ANOTHER SPOKE OF VORTICITY WILL
ROTATE SOUTHWARD AROUND THE PART UPPER LOW AND PROVIDE SOME
ENHANCEMENT TO THE PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY LOCATIONS ADJACENT
TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. THESE AREAS MAY PICK UP A FEW MORE INCHES
OF SNOW OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUSLY...

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE MEANDER OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. NEXT IN A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES
WILL SETTLE INTO NORTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT WITH SNOW LIKELY IN THE
MOUNTAINS. COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF WET SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS FROM EASTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE THROUGH SOUTHWEST MAINE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS WILL
PREVAIL. EXPECT MUCH OF THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND WEST CENTRAL
NEW HAMPSHIRE TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH FROM THE MOUNTAINS
SATURDAY MORNING. ANY MORNING SUN WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO DIE OUT IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH PUSHES
OFFSHORE. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO THE MID
50S SOUTH.

SKIES WILL ONCE AGAIN REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE NORTH WITH
VARIABLE CLOUDINESS ELSEWHERE SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL
RANGE THROUGH THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
500 MB DOUBLE BARREL CLOSED LOW WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS THE NERN
CONUS AND MARITIMES ON SUNDAY...AND WILL GO THROUGH SEVERAL
FUJIWARA WOBBLES AS IT SHIFTS SLOWLY EWD THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP US IN COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDS THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH MAXES RUNNING 5-10 F BLO NORMAL THROUGH TUE. ON
WAVE WILL BE PUSHING FROM NE-SW AROUND THE UPPER LOW ON SUN
MORNING...AND THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHRA DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY.

MODELS SEEM TO BE AGREE THAT A MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE...WHICH
CLOSED OFF OFF THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE 500MB LOW AND DRAGS IT SWD
OUT OF THE MARITIMES AND INTO ERN ME MON INTO MON NIGHT. THIS
LOOKS TO BE THE BEST TIMEFRAME FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
SHRA...ALTHOUGH THE GFS/EURO/CMC STILL VARYING BY ABOUT 12 HOURS
OR SO. BY WED...GFS/EURO START TO BUILD SOME RIDGING INTO THE AREA
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...SO MAY SEE MORE SUN AND SEASONABLY
MILD TEMPS BY THEN. ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS SWD TOWARD THE END OF NEXT
WEEK...AND COULD PRODUCE SOME SHRA AGAIN BY FRI...ALTHOUGH THIS
SYSTEM MAY BE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MOVE THRU QUICKLY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AREAS OF
MVFR CEILINGS/VSBY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

LONG TERM...VFR...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR IN SHRA SUN AND SUN NIGHT.
LOOKS LIKE PREDOMINANT MVFR...WITH OCCNL IFR MON INTO MON NIGHT IN
MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA. SOME MVFR CONDS MAY LINGER INTO TUE...WITH
VFR EXPECTED TUE NIGHT AND WED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A FEW 25 KT GUSTS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...NO FLAGS.

LONG TERM...MOSTLY QUIET ON THE WATERS. COULD SE WINDS BRIEFLY
APPROACH SCA TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COOL WEATHER WITH SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
AND MODERATE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...EKSTER



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