Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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FXUS64 KHUN 050255
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
955 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE TO PUBLIC FORECAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE CURRENT SHORT TERM FORECAST IS IN GOOD CONDITION THIS EVENING...
WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME. WE ARE EXPECTING ANOTHER
TRANQUIL NIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY -- PROVIDED BY A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. LINGERING
REMNANTS OF AFTERNOON ALTOCUMULUS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING...WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED FOR REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN A BIT QUICKER THAN FORECAST IN PORTIONS OF
NE ALABAMA AND A BIT SLOWER THAN FORECAST IN THE MORE URBANIZED
HUNTSVILLE/MADISON AREAS. HOWEVER...TRENDS SUGGEST THAT TEMPS ARE ON
TRACK TO REACH THE MID 50S BY SUNRISE -- AND JUST A FEW DEGREES
WARMER IN THE WEST WHERE STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT A
LIGHT SE WIND THROUGH THE NIGHT. BASED ON PERSISTENCE FROM LAST
NIGHT...WILL NOT BE INCLUDING PATCHY VALLEY FOG IN GRIDS AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME FOG DEVELOPED TOWARD
SUNRISE IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS SUCH AS THE DEKALB, PAINT ROCK, AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY BETWEEN GUNTERSVILLE AND BRIDGEPORT.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 626 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TAF PERIOD...AS
HIGH PRESSURE RESTS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL BE NEAR
CALM OVERNIGHT AND BECOME SOUTHERLY BY TUESDAY MORNING.

73

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 332 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH PLENTY OF FAIR WEATHER CU ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET AND THEN
BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT. HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA FOR A MAJORITY OF THE WORK WEEK. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WITH SOME AFTERNOON FAIR WEATHER CU LIKELY. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A
DEGREE OR TWO OF WARMING EACH DAY. WE COULD SEE OUR FIRST TASTE OF
UPPER 80S TO CLOSE TO 90 DEGREES BY LATER IN THE WEEK AND TO QUOTE A
FORMER FORECASTER...BIG BUBBLE...NO TROUBLE!

LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN FORMING A TROPICAL LIKE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
SC/NC COAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. THEY BEGIN TO
DIVERGE IN WHAT TO DO WITH THE LOW...THE ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW SPINNING
OFF THE SC COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GEM/DGEX BRING THE LOW
INTO THE SC/NC AREA FRIDAY AND LIFT THE SYSTEM NORTH INTO THE NC/VA
REGION BY SATURDAY. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND TAKES THE LOW AND
PUSHES IT INTO THE SC/GA AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND KEEPS IT THERE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IF THIS SOLUTION IS CORRECT WE COULD SEE
MOISTURE SPREAD INTO OUR EASTERN COUNTIES SATURDAY WHICH COULD
GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NE
ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE SATURDAY. WHILE THIS MORE
WESTERN SOLUTION IS CURRENTLY THE ODD SOLUTION OUT COMPARED TO THE
REST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS...THERE IS SOME SUPPORT FOR THIS IN A
FEW OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS. DUE TO THE CONTINUED DISCREPANCIES
IN THE HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
FOR SATURDAY.

BY SUNDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL HAVE BEEN LOCATED OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THIS
CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION IT WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE TIMING OF
FRONT IS STILL UNCERTAIN BUT HAVE INCREASED POPS AND KEPT THE MENTION
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT AND WE
RETURN TO NEAR WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.


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