Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 261959
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
359 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING THE CHANCE
FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION ON
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK BACK INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CU WILL BE AROUND THIS EVENING.  A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP SOME
CLOUDS AROUND THE AREA TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DOWN INTO
THE 30S WITH LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. LIMITED ANY FROST MENTION TO PATCHY FROST WITH
SOME CLOUD COVER AROUND THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER AND A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON MONDAY.
THIS WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES TO THE MIDDLE 50S TO AROUND 60. CLOUD
COVER WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING DOWN INTO THE 30S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. THIS WILL LEAD
TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FROST.

COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR TUESDAY. THIS WILL LIMIT
TEMPERATURES TO GENERALLY THE LOW 60S. A SYSTEM MOVING UP FROM THE
SOUTH WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING INTO THE 30S AND HAVE LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE FA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL OPEN UP AND SLOWLY MOVE
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WHILE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE DROPS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THESE SYSTEMS WILL
INTERACT TO BECOME A LONG WAVE TROUGH JUST EAST OF THE REGION BY
FRIDAY. OVERALL THERE IS WEAK FORCING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY PRIMARILY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES. BUT AT THIS POINT EXPECT ANY
PRECIPITATION TO BE LIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH
LOWS CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGE. RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE
NORMAL. CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS LOOKS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE ISSUANCE. HIGH PRESSURE HAS CONTINUED TO
EDGE IN TODAY ALLOWING FOR VFR CONDITIONS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO ROTATE SOUTH OVERNIGHT BRINGING A RETURN
OF VFR CLOUDS. DURING THE AFTERNOON A SLIGHTLY STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. HIGH RES MODELS ARE
DEVELOPING SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN TOWARDS CMH/ LCK IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH THIS DISTURBANCE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE ONLY SHOWING A VERY
THIN LAYER OF SATURATION AROUND 850 MB. DUE TO THIS HAVE LEFT
MENTION OF RAIN OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW AS CHANCE SEEMS LOW.

OUTLOOK...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HAINES






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