Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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000
FXUS64 KJAN 030937
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
437 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL SEEM POSSIBLE FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH HAPPENING IN THE SHORT TERM.
MOSTLY CLEAR AND WARM AGAIN TODAY. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON HELPING TO BRING IN SOME MOISTURE ACROSS THE
AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTH. WITH THE RIDGE SHIFTING EAST...LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWEST ZONES...WHERE MODELS SHOW
A LITTLE WEAKNESS. NO BIG CHANGES FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE
IN AGREEMENT DURING THE PERIOD WITH A GENERALLY LIGHT MID LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN LEADING TO RIDGING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WARMING IN
THE COLUMN WILL ALLOW A CAP TO FORM AROUND 700 MB SIGNIFICANTLY
LIMITING ANY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE TN VALLEY...RESULTING IN
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL STATES AND NO APPRECIABLE
CHANGE IN THE LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE GULF EFFECTIVELY CUT OFF
THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. WITH WARMING IN THE COLUMN AND
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS...WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN THE DIURNAL RANGE
AS MAX TEMPS CREEP UPWARD. COOL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS
THE DRY AIRMASS WILL EFFICIENTLY RADIATE THE DAYTIME HEATING./26/


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE MAY
BE SOME PATCHY FOG FOR MEI/HBG BEFORE 12Z TODAY AND AGAIN MONDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MAINLY FOR SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       81  56  82  58 /   0   3  10   6
MERIDIAN      82  53  83  57 /   0   2   8   5
VICKSBURG     82  55  82  61 /   0   3  11   9
HATTIESBURG   84  56  83  60 /   0   6  18  10
NATCHEZ       81  58  80  61 /   1   4  26  15
GREENVILLE    83  57  83  61 /   0   1   4   5
GREENWOOD     82  55  83  61 /   0   1   8   5

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

7/26


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