Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 280801
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
401 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE WEEKEND AND REMAIN INTO THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 345 AM TUESDAY...NEARLY STATIONARY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
CONTINUES OFF THE NORTHEASTERN STATES/CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. ANOTHER UPPER LOW
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO THE AR/LA/MS
MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION. NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES WITH SPEEDS
DIMINISHING LATE AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. THICKNESSES FALL SLIGHTLY TUESDAY, TO 1340-1350
METERS, YIELDING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES TO LOW 60S ACROSS NORTHEASTERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
REMAINING OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE
SOUTH ADVANCES TOWARD THE REGION WHILE OPENING UP INTO A WAVE AS
IT MOVES INTO AL/GA. EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE BUT WILL
SEE INCREASING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED BUT THICKENING CLOUDS WILL CURTAIL RADIATIONAL
COOLING SOME, ESPECIALLY LATE. LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S INLAND
TO LOWER 50S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...COASTAL STORM STILL ON TRACK TO AFFECT THE
REGION DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD BUT STILL UNCERTAINTY ON HOW
STRONG THE IMPACTS WILL BE.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS INCREASE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
WITH LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING BY MIDDAY AS STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW
EMERGES FROM THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA COAST. MODEL DIFFERENCES IN
LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW WITH THE GFS FURTHEST SOUTH. AS
THE LOW APPROACHES...RAIN BECOMES LIKELY BY AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...SURFACE LOW PASSES JUST OVER OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE COAST DURING THURSDAY...WITH THE ECMWF/NAM BRINGING
THE LOW FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST WHILE THE GFS IS FURTHER SOUTH
OVER THE WATERS. STRONG MID-LEVEL ENERGY AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW
WHICH CLOSES OFF TO THE NORTHWEST WILL LEAD TO CHANCE TO HIGH
CHANCE POPS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH WEAK INSTABILITY...THERE
COULD BE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE DELMARVA
AS IT PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT.
HAVE STILL GONE CONSERVATIVE WITH THE WINDS FOR NOW...BUT WIND
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WITH
UPPER ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE MID-LEVEL LOW...HAVE ALSO KEPT
SMALL POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AS
THE STUBBORN LOW FINALLY MOVES AWAY. EXPECT A NICE WARM SUNDAY AND
MONDAY ESPECIALLY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW
KICKS IN...PUSHING HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 80S AWAY FROM
THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NW WITH NLY WINDS AROUND 10 KT. LIGHT/CALM WINDS TONIGHT
BUT WILL SEE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF A SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM TUESDAY...WITH RAIN BECOMING WIDESPREAD BY MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY...EXPECT PREVAILING MVFR CEILINGS WITH SOME PERIODS OF
IFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MOST OF THURSDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES
AWAY FRIDAY...SOME OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS ARE STILL LIKELY ALONG
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM TUESDAY...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS
REPORTING N/NNW WINDS 5-15 KTS AND SEAS 2-4 FT. GRADIENTS ARE
JUST STARTING TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE REGION WITH NLY WINDS
INCREASING. WINDS ACROSS HAMPTON ROADS HAVE INCREASED TO 15-25 KT
AND EXPECT A SIMILAR SURGE TO MOVE INTO EASTERN NC THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. NWPS IS SLIGHTLY LOWER WITH SEAS, PEAKING AS HIGH
AS 5 FT, BUT WILL CONTINUE A PERSISTENT FORECAST WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF UP TO 6 FT SEAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS
THIS MORNING WITH THE SURGE AND WILL CONTINUE A MARGINAL SCA FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF OCRACOKE INLET. SEAS SOUTH OF
OCRACOKE INLET WILL REMAIN AROUND 2-4 FT TODAY. WINDS DIMINISH TO
15 KT OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME VARIABLE TONIGHT WHILE
SEAS SUBSIDE TO 2-4 FT NORTH AND 1-2 FT SOUTHERN WATERS BY
TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM TUESDAY...STRENGTH AND TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH
COASTAL STORM MAKE THE WIND/SEA FORECAST TRICKY OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. USING A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...THINK THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH THE SURFACE LOW WILL
OCCUR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
WATERS AS THE STORMS EXITS TO THE NORTH OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST.
EXPECT NNW/N WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WHICH WILL CREATE SEAS OF UP
TO 8 FEET IN THE MIDDLE LEGS. CURRENTLY SHOWING LESS WIND AND
SMALLER SEAS ELSEWHERE BUT FORECAST WINDS/SEAS COULD BE
CONSIDERABLY HIGHER WITH CHANGES IN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE
LOW. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD QUICKLY SUBSIDE ON SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/SK
MARINE...CTC/SK


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